Football · Lebanon League · 08/10, 14:00

Prediction: Safa Beirut vs Reyady Abaseya

Team pages: Safa Beirut · Reyady Abaseya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Safa Beirut1.99

Reyady Abaseya1.1

1X2

56% 24% 19%

Safa Beirut Draw Reyady Abaseya

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Safa Beirut 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWLDW

Reyady Abaseya 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Safa Beirut 3–0 Reyady Abaseya (3 last)

Reyady Abaseya2-4Safa Beirut
Safa Beirut2-1Reyady Abaseya
Safa Beirut2-1Reyady Abaseya

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Safa Beirut 1549 · Reyady Abaseya 1455

	Safa Beirut	Draw	Reyady Abaseya
Our model	57%	24%	20%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Safa Beirut (rating 1549 vs 1455).
H2H favours Safa Beirut: 3-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Safa Beirut	Reyady Abaseya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.1	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +4’	1.60	3.60	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Safa Beirut 3–0–0 Reyady Abaseya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Lebanon League	Reyady Abaseya	2-4 HT 0-3	Safa Beirut
07/12/25 Lebanon League	Safa Beirut	2-1 HT 0-0	Reyady Abaseya
26/01/25 Lebanon League	Safa Beirut	2-1 HT 1-1	Reyady Abaseya

Standings · Lebanon League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Ahed	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Akhaa Ahli Aley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ansar Beirut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sagesse SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Mabarrah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Safa Beirut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tadamon Sour	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jwaya FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Nejmeh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reyady Abaseya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shabab Al-Sahel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AC Tripoli	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Safa Beirut	Reyady Abaseya
Shabab Al-Sahel	1-0 W	0-3 L
Racing Beirut	2-0 W	2-1 W
Al Ansar Beirut	0-1 L	2-1 W
Sagesse SC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Al Nejmeh	1-0 W	0-4 L
Tadamon Sour	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Safa Beirut (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Safa Beirut

WWWLWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	3-0	4-0	2	3	W
28/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
24/06	Al Ahed Lebanon League	1-2	1-4	3	4	L
20/06	Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League	3-0	4-2	1	2	W
12/06	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
20/02	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
13/02	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
06/02	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
31/01	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
24/01	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	1-0	2-0	6	2	W

Reyady Abaseya

WLLLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
25/07	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
17/07	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	–	0-0	4	2	D
13/07	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	1-0	4-0	1	1	W
02/07	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
24/06	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
20/06	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	0-3	2-4	3	2	L
12/06	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
21/02	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	–	0-4	–	–	L
17/02	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	1-1	2-1	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Safa Beirut vs Reyady Abaseya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Safa Beirut win (56%). Probabilities: Safa Beirut 56%, draw 24%, Reyady Abaseya 19%.

How many goals are expected in Safa Beirut vs Reyady Abaseya?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Safa Beirut 1.99 · Reyady Abaseya 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Safa Beirut vs Reyady Abaseya?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.