Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 08/10, 15:00

Prediction: Ferroviario Maputo vs Vilankulo FC

Team pages: Ferroviario Maputo · Vilankulo FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.85Total

Ferroviario Maputo1.2

Vilankulo FC0.65

1X2

49% 31% 20%

Ferroviario Maputo Draw Vilankulo FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviario Maputo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDWDWW

Vilankulo FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDLLWW

Head-to-head

Ferroviario Maputo 2–3–1 Vilankulo FC (6 last)

Vilankulo FC0-0Ferroviario Maputo
Ferroviario Maputo2-2Vilankulo FC
Vilankulo FC0-0Ferroviario Maputo
Ferroviario Maputo3-1Vilankulo FC
Ferroviario Maputo0-1Vilankulo FC
Ferroviario Maputo1-0Vilankulo FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviario Maputo 1540 · Vilankulo FC 1496

	Ferroviario Maputo	Draw	Vilankulo FC
Our model	48%	33%	19%
Market	50%	30%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.85 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario Maputo (rating 1540 vs 1496).
H2H favours Ferroviario Maputo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviario Maputo	Vilankulo FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.5	2.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80
X	2.88 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	3.70 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
02:16 +6’	2.00	2.88	3.70
09:05 +11’	1.80▼	3.00▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario Maputo 2–3–1 Vilankulo FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Vilankulo FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviario Maputo
02/10/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Maputo	2-2 HT 0-1	Vilankulo FC
25/05/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Vilankulo FC	0-0	Ferroviario Maputo
17/11/24 Mozambique Cup	Ferroviario Maputo	3-1 HT 0-1	Vilankulo FC
27/05/24 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Maputo	0-1 HT 0-1	Vilankulo FC
11/08/23 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Maputo	1-0 HT 0-0	Vilankulo FC

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	19	13	5	1	28	9	44
2	Costa Do Sol	19	11	4	4	26	12	37
3	Ferroviario Beira	18	9	7	2	22	11	34
4	Ferroviario Maputo	19	7	5	7	14	11	26
5	Ferroviario Lichinga	16	7	4	5	14	13	25
6	Ferroviario de Nampula	15	7	3	5	17	21	24
7	UD Songo	16	5	8	3	17	15	23
8	Vilankulo FC	17	4	8	5	19	16	20
9	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	15	5	4	6	8	11	19
10	AD Pemba	15	5	2	8	9	16	17
11	Baía de Pemba F.C	16	3	7	6	7	11	16
12	LD Sofala	18	3	6	9	7	19	15
13	CD Maxaquene	18	1	7	10	8	20	10
14	Chingale de Tete	17	1	6	10	4	15	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviario Maputo	Vilankulo FC
Ferroviario Beira	1-0 W	1-2 L
LD Sofala	2-0 W	3-1 W
UD Songo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Chingale de Tete	1-0 W	0-0 D
CD Maxaquene	2-2 D	1-1 D
Costa Do Sol	0-1 L	1-2 L
Ferroviario de Nampula	1-2 L	1-2 L
AD Pemba	2-0 W	1-0 W
Baía de Pemba F.C	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviario Maputo (3 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviario Maputo

WDWLLDWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/09	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
02/09	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
30/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
25/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-2	11	3	D
22/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
18/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
06/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
27/07	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	1	0	W

Vilankulo FC

DLLWDDLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/09	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/08	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
06/08	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
19/07	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/07	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviario Maputo vs Vilankulo FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviario Maputo win (49%). Probabilities: Ferroviario Maputo 49%, draw 31%, Vilankulo FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviario Maputo vs Vilankulo FC?

The model expects 1.85 goals (Ferroviario Maputo 1.2 · Vilankulo FC 0.65), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviario Maputo vs Vilankulo FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.