Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 3 · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: US Pergolettese U19 vs Alcione Milano U19

Team pages: Alcione Milano U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

US Pergolettese U191.52

Alcione Milano U191.72

1X2

33% 25% 42%

US Pergolettese U19 Draw Alcione Milano U19

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

US Pergolettese U19 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWLLL

Alcione Milano U19 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLLWD

Head-to-head

US Pergolettese U19 0–2 Alcione Milano U19 (2 last)

Alcione Milano U194-0US Pergolettese U19
US Pergolettese U191-3Alcione Milano U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Pergolettese U19 1482 · Alcione Milano U19 1537

	US Pergolettese U19	Draw	Alcione Milano U19
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alcione Milano U19 (rating 1482 vs 1537).
H2H favours Alcione Milano U19: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Pergolettese U19	Alcione Milano U19
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.41 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.71
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:54 +43’	2.70	3.60	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:50 +11’	3.41	3.71	1.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · US Pergolettese U19 0–0–2 Alcione Milano U19

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	Alcione Milano U19	4-0 HT 1-0	US Pergolettese U19
11/04/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	US Pergolettese U19	1-3 HT 0-3	Alcione Milano U19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Pergolettese U19	Alcione Milano U19
Carrarese U19	1-4 L	2-2 D
Virtus Verona U19	3-0 W	4-1 W
Mantova U19	2-1 W	1-0 W
Torres U19	0-1 L	4-2 W
Pro Patria U19	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alcione Milano U19 (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Pergolettese U19

WLWLWLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Alcione Milano U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	0-1	0-4	9	0	L
11/04	Alcione Milano U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	0-3	1-3	2	3	L
28/03	Carrarese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-1	1-4	4	7	L
07/03	Virtus Verona U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/02	AC Carpi U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	0-1	0-1	12	7	L
07/02	Mantova U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
13/12	Torres U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
29/11	Carrarese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-2	3-2	5	5	W
22/11	Pro Patria U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
25/10	Arzignano Valchiampo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-0	3-0	4	2	W

Alcione Milano U19

WDDWWWLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Carrarese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
19/09	Torres U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	2-0	4-2	2	0	W
02/05	Pro Patria U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-1	2-3	10	6	L
25/04	Pro Patria U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	0-1	1-4	3	0	L
18/04	US Pergolettese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
11/04	US Pergolettese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	3-0	3-1	3	3	W
28/03	Virtus Verona U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	3-0	4-1	5	4	W
07/03	Pro Patria U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
07/02	Carrarese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	1-2	3-3	7	5	D
24/01	Mantova U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 3	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Pergolettese U19 vs Alcione Milano U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alcione Milano U19 win (42%). Probabilities: US Pergolettese U19 33%, draw 25%, Alcione Milano U19 42%.

How many goals are expected in US Pergolettese U19 vs Alcione Milano U19?

The model expects 3.23 goals (US Pergolettese U19 1.52 · Alcione Milano U19 1.72), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in US Pergolettese U19 vs Alcione Milano U19?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.