Football · Lithuania A Lyga Women · 23/09, 17:30

Prediction: Gintra Universitetas (W) vs MFA Zalgiris (W)

Team pages: Gintra Universitetas (W) · MFA Zalgiris (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Gintra Universitetas (W)2.46

MFA Zalgiris (W)0.86

1X2

72% 16% 11%

Gintra Universitetas (W) Draw MFA Zalgiris (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gintra Universitetas (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDWWW

MFA Zalgiris (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Gintra Universitetas (W) 5–1–0 MFA Zalgiris (W) (6 last)

MFA Zalgiris (W)1-1Gintra Universitetas (W)
Gintra Universitetas (W)1-0MFA Zalgiris (W)
MFA Zalgiris (W)0-2Gintra Universitetas (W)
Gintra Universitetas (W)1-0MFA Zalgiris (W)
MFA Zalgiris (W)0-1Gintra Universitetas (W)
Gintra Universitetas (W)4-0MFA Zalgiris (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gintra Universitetas (W) 1572 · MFA Zalgiris (W) 1542

	Gintra Universitetas (W)	Draw	MFA Zalgiris (W)
Our model	72%	18%	10%
Market	73%	15%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gintra Universitetas (W): 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gintra Universitetas (W)	MFA Zalgiris (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.8	3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.6	1.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	4.50 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00
2	4.50 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +4’	1.50	4.50	4.50
03:55 +6’	1.33▼	5.25▲	6.25▲
12:54 +9’	1.22▼	6.00▲	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gintra Universitetas (W) 5–1–0 MFA Zalgiris (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga Women	MFA Zalgiris (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Gintra Universitetas (W)
28/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga Women	Gintra Universitetas (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	MFA Zalgiris (W)
04/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga Women	MFA Zalgiris (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Gintra Universitetas (W)
16/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga Women	Gintra Universitetas (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	MFA Zalgiris (W)
11/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga Women	MFA Zalgiris (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Gintra Universitetas (W)
23/03/25 Lithuania A Lyga Women	Gintra Universitetas (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	MFA Zalgiris (W)

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gintra Universitetas (W)	MFA Zalgiris (W)
FK Banga (W)	7-3 W	9-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Transinvest (W)	5-2 W	4-1 W
FA Siauliai (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gintra Universitetas (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gintra Universitetas (W)

WWWWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	FK Banga (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	3-2	7-3	8	3	W
30/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
14/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
31/05	MFA Zalgiris (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
31/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
24/05	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	2-1	5-2	5	1	W
10/05	FC Hegelmann (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
28/03	MFA Zalgiris (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/03	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-0	2-0	11	2	W
14/03	FA Siauliai (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-0	3-0	14	1	W

MFA Zalgiris (W)

WDWDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Banga (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	3-0	9-0	2	0	W
13/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
06/09	FA Siauliai (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
31/08	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
07/08	Kauno Rajono FA (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	3-1	4-1	6	0	W
29/06	FK Banga (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	3-0	3-0	4	0	W
25/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
14/06	FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/05	Gintra Universitetas (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/05	Kauno Rajono FA (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women	1-0	3-0	1	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gintra Universitetas (W) vs MFA Zalgiris (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gintra Universitetas (W) win (72%). Probabilities: Gintra Universitetas (W) 72%, draw 16%, MFA Zalgiris (W) 11%.

How many goals are expected in Gintra Universitetas (W) vs MFA Zalgiris (W)?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Gintra Universitetas (W) 2.46 · MFA Zalgiris (W) 0.86), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gintra Universitetas (W) vs MFA Zalgiris (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.