Football · England National League Division 1 Women · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Stockport (W) vs Chorley (W)

Team pages: Chorley (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Stockport (W)2.68

Chorley (W)0.93

1X2

74% 16% 10%

Stockport (W) Draw Chorley (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Stockport (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Chorley (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Stockport (W) 4–2 Chorley (W) (6 last)

Stockport (W)2-0Chorley (W)
Chorley (W)4-1Stockport (W)
Stockport (W)2-4Chorley (W)
Stockport (W)2-1Chorley (W)
Chorley (W)1-4Stockport (W)
Chorley (W)0-1Stockport (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stockport (W) 1547 · Chorley (W) 1467

	Stockport (W)	Draw	Chorley (W)
Our model	74%	16%	10%
Market	74%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stockport (W) (rating 1547 vs 1467).
H2H favours Stockport (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stockport (W)	Chorley (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	1.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:46 +2’	1.22	6.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stockport (W) 4–0–2 Chorley (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 England National League Division 1 Women	Stockport (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Chorley (W)
23/03/25 England National League Division 1 Women	Chorley (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	Stockport (W)
27/10/24 England National League Division 1 Women	Stockport (W)	2-4 HT 1-1	Chorley (W)
13/03/24 England National League Division 1 Women	Stockport (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Chorley (W)
11/10/23 England National League Women	Chorley (W)	1-4 HT 1-2	Stockport (W)
14/03/23 England National League Women	Chorley (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Stockport (W)

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stockport (W)	Chorley (W)
Leeds (W)	1-1 D	0-5 L
Chester Le Street (W)	3-3 D	2-1 W
Huddersfield (W)	0-2 L	0-3 L
Cheadle Town Stingers (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Doncaster (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Blackburn (W)	4-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Stockport (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stockport (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Bradford (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	5-1	5	5	W
26/04	Leeds (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
12/04	Chester Le Street (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-3	3-3	8	1	D
22/03	York (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-0	3-1	9	1	W
18/03	Huddersfield (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-2	0-2	2	1	L
11/03	Cheadle Town Stingers (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
08/03	Doncaster (W) England National League Division 1 Women	2-0	2-2	13	2	D
22/02	Durham Cestria (W) England National League Division 1 Women	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/01	Blackburn (W) England National League Division 1 Women	3-0	4-0	5	3	W
04/01	Chorley (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	2-0	3	2	W

Chorley (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Leeds (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	0-5	4	3	L
26/04	Chester Le Street (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
16/04	Cheadle Town Stingers (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
29/03	Huddersfield (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
22/03	Wythenshawe FC (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
01/03	Norton & Stockton Ancients (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-1	2-2	4	1	D
22/02	Doncaster (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
18/02	Blackburn (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	5-1	4	3	W
15/01	Leeds (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-2	0-4	3	0	L
04/01	Stockport (W) England National League Division 1 Women	0-0	0-2	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stockport (W) vs Chorley (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stockport (W) win (74%). Probabilities: Stockport (W) 74%, draw 16%, Chorley (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in Stockport (W) vs Chorley (W)?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Stockport (W) 2.68 · Chorley (W) 0.93), with a 58% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Stockport (W) vs Chorley (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.