Football · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · 26/09, 20:00
Prediction: UNSAAC (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)
Team pages: UNSAAC (W) · Universitario de Deportes (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.05Total
UNSAAC (W)1.03
Universitario de Deportes (W)3.03
1X2
UNSAAC (W)
Draw
Universitario de Deportes (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-3 8%
Recent form · 10 last
UNSAAC (W)
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Universitario de Deportes (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UNSAAC (W)
0–4
Universitario de Deportes (W)
(4 last)
- Universitario de Deportes (W)5-0UNSAAC (W)
- Universitario de Deportes (W)2-1UNSAAC (W)
- UNSAAC (W)0-3Universitario de Deportes (W)
- UNSAAC (W)2-6Universitario de Deportes (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UNSAAC (W) 1415 · Universitario de Deportes (W) 1610
| UNSAAC (W) | Draw | Universitario de Deportes (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| Market | 2% | 5% | 93% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (W) (rating 1415 vs 1610).
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes (W): 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UNSAAC (W) | Universitario de Deportes (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.2 | 4.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/25/75% | 50/33/17% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 2.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UNSAAC (W) 0–0–4 Universitario de Deportes (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 5-0 | UNSAAC (W) |
| 31/08/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | UNSAAC (W) |
| 01/05/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | UNSAAC (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 19/05/24 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | UNSAAC (W) | 2-6 HT 1-2 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
Standings · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · Liga Femenina 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima (W) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 27 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar (W) | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Sporting Cristal (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Killas (W) | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 12 |
| 7 | Carlos Mannucci (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 10 |
| 8 | Flamengo FBC (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 7 |
| 9 | Yanapuma (W) | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 33 | 6 |
| 10 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 6 |
| 11 | UNSAAC (W) | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
| 12 | Biavo FC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UNSAAC (W) | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Flamengo FBC (W) | 0-1 L | 5-0 W |
| Yanapuma (W) | 4-1 W | 9-3 W |
| Sporting Cristal (W) | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| FBC Melgar (W) | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Alianza Lima (W) | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Carlos Mannucci (W) | 1-3 L | 12-0 W |
| Atletico Andahuaylas (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FC Killas (W) | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Defensores Del Ilucan (W) | 0-1 L | 6-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 7 L | 7 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (W) (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UNSAAC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 30/08 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 05/08 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/08 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Universitario de Deportes (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
Universitario de Deportes (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 9-3 | – | – | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 6-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/07 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
3-0 | 12-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UNSAAC (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universitario de Deportes (W) win (86%). Probabilities: UNSAAC (W) 5%, draw 9%, Universitario de Deportes (W) 86%.
How many goals are expected in UNSAAC (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)?
The model expects 4.05 goals (UNSAAC (W) 1.03 · Universitario de Deportes (W) 3.03), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UNSAAC (W) vs Universitario de Deportes (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.