Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 13/09, 17:00
Prediction: Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel
Team pages: Felgueiras 1932 · Penafiel
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Felgueiras 19321.33
Penafiel1.07
1X2
Felgueiras 1932
Draw
Penafiel
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Felgueiras 1932
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Penafiel
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Felgueiras 1932
1–1–2
Penafiel
(4 last)
- Felgueiras 19320-0Penafiel
- Penafiel2-0Felgueiras 1932
- Felgueiras 19321-0Penafiel
- Penafiel2-1Felgueiras 1932
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Felgueiras 1932 1520 · Penafiel 1535
| Felgueiras 1932 | Draw | Penafiel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Penafiel: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Felgueiras 1932 | Penafiel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 1.7 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Felgueiras 1932 1–1–2 Penafiel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Portugal Segunda Liga | Felgueiras 1932 | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Penafiel |
| 27/09/25 Portugal Segunda Liga | Penafiel | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Felgueiras 1932 |
| 05/04/25 Portugal Segunda Liga | Felgueiras 1932 | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Penafiel |
| 09/11/24 Portugal Segunda Liga | Penafiel | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Felgueiras 1932 |
Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitania Lourosa | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Sporting B | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Vizela | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | UD Leiria | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | SC Farense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Felgueiras 1932 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | SCU Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | AVS | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | Amarante | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | FC Porto B | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 17 | Chaves | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 18 | Feirense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Felgueiras 1932 | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| FC Porto B | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| UD Leiria | 2-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Sporting B | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felgueiras 1932
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/08 | SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 17/08 | AVS Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 25/04 | UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 20/04 | Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Penafiel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Academica Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Felgueiras 1932 win (41%). Probabilities: Felgueiras 1932 41%, draw 30%, Penafiel 29%.
How many goals are expected in Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Felgueiras 1932 1.33 · Penafiel 1.07), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.