Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 02/09, 15:00

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Metallurg Bekabad

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent II · Metallurg Bekabad

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent II1.46

Metallurg Bekabad1.89

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Pakhtakor Tashkent II Draw Metallurg Bekabad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLW

Metallurg Bekabad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–1 Metallurg Bekabad (1 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent II0-5Metallurg Bekabad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1414 · Metallurg Bekabad 1561

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Draw	Metallurg Bekabad
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metallurg Bekabad (rating 1414 vs 1561).
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Metallurg Bekabad
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.4	2.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:29 +35’	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–0–1 Metallurg Bekabad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	0-5 HT 0-1	Metallurg Bekabad

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	17	13	3	1	34	10	42
2	Shurtan	17	10	3	4	24	18	33
3	Fardu Ferghana	17	9	5	3	30	23	32
4	Metallurg Bekabad	17	9	4	4	41	14	31
5	FC Lochin	17	9	4	4	25	17	31
6	Kattaqorgon	17	9	3	5	21	14	30
7	Olympic Mobiuz	16	8	4	4	30	16	28
8	Gazalkent	17	8	3	6	31	21	27
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	17	6	3	8	20	28	21
10	Jayxun	17	5	3	9	19	24	18
11	Respublika FA	15	3	4	8	15	24	13
12	BuxDu	16	3	1	12	13	39	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	17	3	1	13	13	39	10
14	PFC Terdu	17	1	1	15	11	40	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Metallurg Bekabad
PFC Terdu	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Lochin	2-1 W	5-0 W
Fardu Ferghana	1-5 L	7-0 W
Kattaqorgon	0-2 L	1-1 D
BuxDu	0-2 L	4-0 W
Respublika FA	0-3 L	3-1 W
FK Orol Nukus	0-3 L	0-1 L
Gazalkent	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 7 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pakhtakor Tashkent II

LLLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
20/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	0	0	L
15/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
09/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-5	4	4	L
04/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
30/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
08/06	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
03/06	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
30/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	5	5	L

Metallurg Bekabad

DLWLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
20/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	3-1	6	3	W
10/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
05/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
31/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-0	2	3	W
23/07	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
08/06	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	7-0	5	5	W
04/06	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
31/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Metallurg Bekabad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Metallurg Bekabad win (47%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent II 29%, draw 24%, Metallurg Bekabad 47%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1.46 · Metallurg Bekabad 1.89), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.