Football · Lebanon League · 09/10, 15:30

Prediction: Jwaya FC vs Al-Mabarrah

Team pages: Jwaya FC · Al-Mabarrah

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Jwaya FC2.01

Al-Mabarrah0.77

1X2

66% 21% 13%

Jwaya FC Draw Al-Mabarrah

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Jwaya FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLWLLD

Al-Mabarrah 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Jwaya FC 3–0 Al-Mabarrah (3 last)

Al-Mabarrah0-2Jwaya FC
Jwaya FC2-0Al-Mabarrah
Al-Mabarrah0-1Jwaya FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jwaya FC 1527 · Al-Mabarrah 1420

	Jwaya FC	Draw	Al-Mabarrah
Our model	65%	22%	12%
Market	67%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jwaya FC (rating 1527 vs 1420).
H2H favours Jwaya FC: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jwaya FC	Al-Mabarrah
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	0.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/83/17%	13/38/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	0.3 / 1.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +8’	1.33	4.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jwaya FC 3–0–0 Al-Mabarrah

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Lebanon League	Al-Mabarrah	0-2 HT 0-0	Jwaya FC
25/10/25 Lebanon League	Jwaya FC	2-0	Al-Mabarrah
16/03/25 Lebanon Division 2	Al-Mabarrah	0-1 HT 0-1	Jwaya FC

Standings · Lebanon League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Ahed	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Akhaa Ahli Aley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ansar Beirut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sagesse SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Mabarrah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Safa Beirut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tadamon Sour	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jwaya FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Nejmeh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reyady Abaseya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shabab Al-Sahel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AC Tripoli	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jwaya FC	Al-Mabarrah
Al Ahed	2-2 D	1-0 W
Al Ansar Beirut	1-2 L	0-7 L
Al Nejmeh	1-2 L	0-5 L
Shabab Al-Sahel	0-0 D	1-0 W
Safa Beirut	1-1 D	0-4 L
Sagesse SC	3-3 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Jwaya FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jwaya FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
28/07	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
24/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/07	Al Ahed Lebanon League	–	2-0	–	–	W
16/07	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	–	0-0	–	–	D
02/07	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
28/06	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
24/06	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
20/06	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	2-2	3-3	9	6	D

Al-Mabarrah

WDWLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	0-3	0-4	3	3	L
29/06	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-4	0-7	2	4	L
25/06	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	1-4	2-4	2	1	L
21/06	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
16/06	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	–	1-1	1	0	D
11/06	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	–	1-0	–	–	W
21/02	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
15/02	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
07/02	Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
23/01	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jwaya FC vs Al-Mabarrah?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jwaya FC win (66%). Probabilities: Jwaya FC 66%, draw 21%, Al-Mabarrah 13%.

How many goals are expected in Jwaya FC vs Al-Mabarrah?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Jwaya FC 2.01 · Al-Mabarrah 0.77), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Jwaya FC vs Al-Mabarrah?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.