Football · South Africa National Div 1 · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: Pretoria University vs Hungry Lions FC

Team pages: Pretoria University · Hungry Lions FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Pretoria University1.31

Hungry Lions FC1.03

1X2

42% 31% 28%

Pretoria University Draw Hungry Lions FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pretoria University 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWDDW

Hungry Lions FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDDDLWDW

Head-to-head

Pretoria University 3–2–1 Hungry Lions FC (6 last)

Hungry Lions FC4-2Pretoria University
Hungry Lions FC0-0Pretoria University
Pretoria University0-0Hungry Lions FC
Hungry Lions FC0-1Pretoria University
Pretoria University3-2Hungry Lions FC
Pretoria University2-1Hungry Lions FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pretoria University 1486 · Hungry Lions FC 1532

	Pretoria University	Draw	Hungry Lions FC
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hungry Lions FC (rating 1486 vs 1532).
H2H favours Pretoria University: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pretoria University	Hungry Lions FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4.8	0.5 / 1.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +7’	2.15	2.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pretoria University 3–2–1 Hungry Lions FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 South Africa National Div 1	Hungry Lions FC	4-2	Pretoria University
08/02/26 South Africa Cup	Hungry Lions FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Pretoria University
20/09/25 South Africa National Div 1	Pretoria University	0-0 HT 0-0	Hungry Lions FC
29/03/25 South Africa National Div 1	Hungry Lions FC	0-1	Pretoria University
27/10/24 South Africa National Div 1	Pretoria University	3-2 HT 1-2	Hungry Lions FC
08/03/24 South Africa National Div 1	Pretoria University	2-1 HT 0-1	Hungry Lions FC

Standings · South Africa National Div 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Magesi FC	6	4	2	0	7	2	14
2	Real Native FC	6	4	0	2	7	5	12
3	Cape Town City	6	3	2	1	9	5	11
4	Highbury FC	6	3	2	1	6	4	11
5	Gomora United	6	3	2	1	7	7	11
6	Seapoint Swifts FC	7	3	2	2	5	5	11
7	Leicesterford City FC	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
8	Hungry Lions FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
9	Pretoria University	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
10	Lerumo Lions	6	2	2	2	6	5	8
11	Upington City	6	2	2	2	10	10	8
12	Midlands Wanderers FC	7	2	2	3	5	5	8
13	NWU FC	6	0	4	2	2	5	4
14	Orbit College	6	0	3	3	3	6	3
15	The Bees FC	6	1	0	5	3	9	3
16	Venda Football Academy	6	0	1	5	3	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pretoria University	Hungry Lions FC
Upington City	3-3 D	0-0 D
Orbit College	0-0 D	0-0 D
Milford FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hungry Lions FC (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pretoria University

DLLWLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Leicesterford City FC South Africa National Div 1	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
19/09	Upington City South Africa National Div 1	–	3-3	–	–	D
12/09	Orbit College South Africa National Div 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
05/09	Venda Football Academy South Africa National Div 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Midlands Wanderers FC South Africa National Div 1	0-2	0-2	11	3	L
22/08	Seapoint Swifts FC South Africa National Div 1	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	Midlands Wanderers FC South Africa National Div 1	3-1	6-2	4	2	W
10/05	Milford FC South Africa National Div 1	–	0-2	–	–	L
02/05	Lerumo Lions South Africa National Div 1	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
25/04	Upington City South Africa National Div 1	–	2-2	–	–	D

Hungry Lions FC

LDWDDDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Real Native FC South Africa National Div 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	Magesi FC South Africa National Div 1	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
12/09	The Bees FC South Africa National Div 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Cape Town City South Africa National Div 1	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/08	Orbit College South Africa National Div 1	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
22/08	Gomora United South Africa National Div 1	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/05	Milford FC South Africa National Div 1	–	0-0	–	–	D
10/05	Highbury FC South Africa National Div 1	–	4-0	–	–	W
02/05	Upington City South Africa National Div 1	–	0-0	–	–	D
26/04	Gomora United South Africa National Div 1	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pretoria University vs Hungry Lions FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pretoria University win (42%). Probabilities: Pretoria University 42%, draw 31%, Hungry Lions FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Pretoria University vs Hungry Lions FC?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Pretoria University 1.31 · Hungry Lions FC 1.03), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Pretoria University vs Hungry Lions FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.