Football · Romania Liga III · 02/10, 14:00

Prediction: Unirea Bascov vs Jiul Petrosani

Team pages: Unirea Bascov · Jiul Petrosani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Unirea Bascov1.63

Jiul Petrosani1.34

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Unirea Bascov Draw Jiul Petrosani

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Unirea Bascov 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLLWWD

Jiul Petrosani 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDLWWW

Head-to-head

Unirea Bascov 1–2–1 Jiul Petrosani (4 last)

Unirea Bascov3-3Jiul Petrosani
Jiul Petrosani1-0Unirea Bascov
Jiul Petrosani1-1Unirea Bascov
Unirea Bascov2-0Jiul Petrosani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unirea Bascov 1525 · Jiul Petrosani 1524

	Unirea Bascov	Draw	Jiul Petrosani
Our model	43%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unirea Bascov	Jiul Petrosani
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3	0.5 / 1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +18’	2.05	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unirea Bascov 1–2–1 Jiul Petrosani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/11/25 Romania Liga III	Unirea Bascov	3-3 HT 1-2	Jiul Petrosani
13/09/25 Romania Liga III	Jiul Petrosani	1-0	Unirea Bascov
01/03/25 Romania Liga III	Jiul Petrosani	1-1	Unirea Bascov
11/10/24 Romania Liga III	Unirea Bascov	2-0 HT 2-0	Jiul Petrosani

Standings · Romania Liga III · Liga 3 26/27, Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Drobeta Turnu Severin	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
2	CS U Craiova II	6	3	3	0	13	7	12
3	Minerul Lupeni	6	4	0	2	7	3	12
4	CSM Targu Jiu	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	ACSO Filiasi	6	3	2	1	13	10	11
6	Jiul Petrosani	6	3	1	2	10	7	10
7	Unirea Bascov	6	2	2	2	11	8	8
8	CS Vulturii Farcasesti	6	2	2	2	11	11	8
9	Oltul Curtisoara	6	2	0	4	8	13	6
10	AS FC Pausesti-Otasau	6	0	5	1	6	7	5
11	ACS Academica Bals	6	1	0	5	7	10	3
12	ACS Petrolul Hartiesti	6	0	0	6	2	22	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unirea Bascov	Jiul Petrosani
CS U Craiova II	1-1 D	1-1 D
ACS Petrolul Hartiesti	6-0 W	5-0 W
ACS Academica Bals	3-1 W	2-0 W
Minerul Lupeni	0-3 L	1-0 W
FC Drobeta Turnu Severin	0-2 L	0-4 L
AS FC Pausesti-Otasau	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Unirea Bascov (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unirea Bascov

WWWLDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	CS U Craiova II Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/09	ACS Petrolul Hartiesti Romania Liga III	2-0	6-0	2	4	W
18/09	ACS Academica Bals Romania Liga III	1-1	3-1	6	9	W
12/09	Minerul Lupeni Romania Liga III	–	0-3	–	–	L
04/09	FC Drobeta Turnu Severin Romania Liga III	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
29/08	AS FC Pausesti-Otasau Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/05	AS FC Pausesti-Otasau Romania Liga III	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/05	ACS Medias 2022 Romania Liga III	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/05	CS Viitorul Daesti Romania Liga III	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
25/04	CS Gilortul Targu Carbunesti Romania Liga III	–	5-0	–	–	W

Jiul Petrosani

WDLLLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	ACS Petrolul Hartiesti Romania Liga III	–	5-0	–	–	W
22/09	ACS Academica Bals Romania Liga III	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Minerul Lupeni Romania Liga III	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
11/09	FC Drobeta Turnu Severin Romania Liga III	0-1	0-4	0	3	L
05/09	AS FC Pausesti-Otasau Romania Liga III	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	ACSO Filiasi Romania Liga III	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/05	ACS Academica Bals Romania Liga III	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
16/05	Cetatea Turnu Magurele Romania Liga III	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	CS U Craiova II Romania Liga III	0-1	1-1	0	4	D
02/05	ACS Inter Ilfov Romania Liga III	–	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unirea Bascov vs Jiul Petrosani?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unirea Bascov win (43%). Probabilities: Unirea Bascov 43%, draw 26%, Jiul Petrosani 31%.

How many goals are expected in Unirea Bascov vs Jiul Petrosani?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Unirea Bascov 1.63 · Jiul Petrosani 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Unirea Bascov vs Jiul Petrosani?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.