Football · Cyprus Division 2 · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Agia Napa vs Digenis Morphou

Team pages: Agia Napa · Digenis Morphou

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Agia Napa1.13

Digenis Morphou1.5

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Agia Napa Draw Digenis Morphou

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Agia Napa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWLDLL

Digenis Morphou 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDDLWD

Head-to-head

Agia Napa 3–1–1 Digenis Morphou (5 last)

Digenis Morphou1-2Agia Napa
Digenis Morphou2-1Agia Napa
Digenis Morphou0-1Agia Napa
Agia Napa0-0Digenis Morphou
Digenis Morphou0-2Agia Napa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Agia Napa 1459 · Digenis Morphou 1473

	Agia Napa	Draw	Digenis Morphou
Our model	27%	28%	45%
Market	28%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Agia Napa: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Agia Napa	Digenis Morphou
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	0.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.25

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:07 +6’	3.25	3.25	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Agia Napa 3–1–1 Digenis Morphou

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/25 Cyprus Division 2	Digenis Morphou	1-2 HT 1-1	Agia Napa
14/12/24 Cyprus Division 2	Digenis Morphou	2-1 HT 1-0	Agia Napa
20/12/23 Cyprus Division 2	Digenis Morphou	0-1 HT 0-0	Agia Napa
20/03/21 Cyprus Division 2	Agia Napa	0-0 HT 0-0	Digenis Morphou
23/10/20 Cyprus Division 2	Digenis Morphou	0-2 HT 0-2	Agia Napa

Standings · Cyprus Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Doxa Katokopias	4	3	1	0	12	7	10
2	Enosis Paralimni	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
3	Ethnikos Achnas	4	3	0	1	12	3	9
4	PAEEK	4	3	0	1	10	6	9
5	Ermis Aradippou	4	3	0	1	6	2	9
6	APEA Akrotiriou	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
7	Asil Lysis	4	2	1	1	7	4	7
8	Digenis Morphou	4	1	2	1	4	3	5
9	Iraklis Yerolakkou	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
10	Spartakos Kitiou	4	1	1	2	6	5	4
11	Anagennisi FC Deryneia	4	1	0	3	5	10	3
12	AEP Polemidion	4	1	0	3	1	8	3
13	Halkanoras Idaliou	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
14	Akritas Chlorakas	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
15	Agia Napa	4	0	1	3	3	9	1
16	MEAP Nisou	4	0	1	3	1	11	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Agia Napa	Digenis Morphou
Iraklis Yerolakkou	1-1 D	1-0 W
MEAP Nisou	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Digenis Morphou (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Agia Napa

LLDLWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Doxa Katokopias Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
10/10	Enosis Paralimni Cyprus Division 2	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
18/09	Iraklis Yerolakkou Cyprus Division 2	1-1	1-1	0	6	D
12/09	Asil Lysis Cyprus Division 2	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
25/04	Doxa Katokopias Cyprus Division 2	0-0	3-0	10	0	W
19/04	PAEEK Cyprus Division 2	3-3	6-3	3	8	W
04/04	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
21/03	Asil Lysis Cyprus Division 2	2-3	5-5	–	–	D
18/03	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
14/03	MEAP Nisou Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L

Digenis Morphou

LDLWLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Halkanoras Idaliou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
10/10	Anagennisi FC Deryneia Cyprus Division 2	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	APEA Akrotiriou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
12/09	MEAP Nisou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/04	AE Zakakiou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
21/04	Ethnikos Latsion Cyprus Division 2	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
04/04	Iraklis Yerolakkou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/03	Spartakos Kitiou Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
18/03	Halkanoras Idaliou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
14/03	APEA Akrotiriou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Agia Napa vs Digenis Morphou?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Digenis Morphou win (45%). Probabilities: Agia Napa 27%, draw 28%, Digenis Morphou 45%.

How many goals are expected in Agia Napa vs Digenis Morphou?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Agia Napa 1.13 · Digenis Morphou 1.5), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Agia Napa vs Digenis Morphou?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.