Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 27/08, 01:00

Prediction: Moca FC vs Salcedo FC

Team pages: Moca FC · Salcedo FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Moca FC1.23

Salcedo FC1.1

1X2

38% 31% 32%

Moca FC Draw Salcedo FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Moca FC 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Salcedo FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Moca FC 1–2–3 Salcedo FC (6 last)

Salcedo FC1-0Moca FC
Moca FC0-1Salcedo FC
Salcedo FC0-2Moca FC
Salcedo FC2-2Moca FC
Moca FC1-1Salcedo FC
Moca FC0-3Salcedo FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moca FC 1448 · Salcedo FC 1557

	Moca FC	Draw	Salcedo FC
Our model	38%	31%	32%
Market	38%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salcedo FC (rating 1448 vs 1557).
H2H favours Salcedo FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moca FC	Salcedo FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	0.8 / 1.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.8	5.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X2.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:20 +14’	2.35	2.90	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moca FC 1–2–3 Salcedo FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Dominican Republic Liga	Salcedo FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Moca FC
15/02/26 Dominican Republic Liga	Moca FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Salcedo FC
10/01/26 Dominican Republic Liga	Salcedo FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Moca FC
30/11/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Salcedo FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Moca FC
12/09/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Moca FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Salcedo FC
15/03/25 Dominican Republic Cup	Moca FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Salcedo FC

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moca FC	Salcedo FC
Universidad O&M	1-1 D	3-1 W
Atletico Pantoja	0-3 L	2-0 W
Cibao FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Delfines Del Este	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Salcedo FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moca FC

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Atletico Vega Real Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
24/04	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
11/04	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
02/04	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	2-2	1	9	D
21/03	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
15/03	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-3	5	8	L
07/03	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
28/02	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	2-2	4	11	D
22/02	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
15/02	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	5	9	L

Salcedo FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
25/05	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
17/05	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
09/05	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-2	1-2	4	3	L
03/05	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
25/04	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
18/04	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
13/04	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
09/04	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
31/03	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	2-1	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moca FC vs Salcedo FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moca FC win (38%). Probabilities: Moca FC 38%, draw 31%, Salcedo FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Moca FC vs Salcedo FC?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Moca FC 1.23 · Salcedo FC 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Moca FC vs Salcedo FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.