Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 06/09, 00:00

Prediction: Cibao FC vs Atletico Vega Real

Team pages: Cibao FC · Atletico Vega Real

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Cibao FC1.88

Atletico Vega Real0.75

1X2

64% 23% 13%

Cibao FC Draw Atletico Vega Real

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cibao FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLWWLW

Atletico Vega Real 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDWL

Head-to-head

Cibao FC 5–1–0 Atletico Vega Real (6 last)

Atletico Vega Real1-3Cibao FC
Cibao FC2-0Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real1-2Cibao FC
Cibao FC3-0Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real0-0Cibao FC
Cibao FC3-1Atletico Vega Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cibao FC 1573 · Atletico Vega Real 1501

	Cibao FC	Draw	Atletico Vega Real
Our model	63%	24%	13%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cibao FC (rating 1573 vs 1501).
H2H favours Cibao FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cibao FC	Atletico Vega Real
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.2	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:13 +11’	1.40	4.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cibao FC 5–1–0 Atletico Vega Real

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/10/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	1-3 HT 1-1	Cibao FC
14/08/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Cibao FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real
26/02/25 Dominican Republic Cup	Atletico Vega Real	1-2 HT 1-1	Cibao FC
23/06/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Cibao FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Vega Real
17/05/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	0-0 HT 0-0	Cibao FC
13/04/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Cibao FC	3-1	Atletico Vega Real

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cibao FC	Atletico Vega Real
Atlantico FC	4-1 W	0-1 L
Delfines Del Este	0-1 L	0-2 L
Jarabacoa FC	2-0 W	3-0 W
Salcedo FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Universidad O&M	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cibao FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cibao FC

DWWWDLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-1	4-1	4	6	W
26/08	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
23/08	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/05	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
17/05	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-2	0	6	L
11/05	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
02/05	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	2	10	W
25/04	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
20/04	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	3-1	6	2	W
13/04	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-1	2	6	D

Atletico Vega Real

LWLWWLWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
26/08	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
22/08	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/12	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-2	4-3	4	7	W
12/12	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
05/12	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
28/11	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
23/11	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
07/11	Atletico San Cristobal Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
01/11	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-2	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cibao FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cibao FC win (64%). Probabilities: Cibao FC 64%, draw 23%, Atletico Vega Real 13%.

How many goals are expected in Cibao FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Cibao FC 1.88 · Atletico Vega Real 0.75), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cibao FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.