Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 26/08, 23:00

Prediction: Atletico Vega Real vs Universidad O&M

Team pages: Atletico Vega Real · Universidad O&M

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Atletico Vega Real1.82

Universidad O&M1.47

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Atletico Vega Real Draw Universidad O&M

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Vega Real 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWLWD

Universidad O&M 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLDL

Head-to-head

Atletico Vega Real 2–2–2 Universidad O&M (6 last)

Universidad O&M0-1Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real2-2Universidad O&M
Atletico Vega Real2-1Universidad O&M
Atletico Vega Real1-3Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M0-0Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real0-1Universidad O&M

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Vega Real 1494 · Universidad O&M 1421

	Atletico Vega Real	Draw	Universidad O&M
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Vega Real (rating 1494 vs 1421).
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Vega Real	Universidad O&M
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:23 +8’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Vega Real 2–2–2 Universidad O&M

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/11/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Universidad O&M	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real
14/09/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	2-2 HT 0-1	Universidad O&M
08/03/25 Dominican Republic Cup	Atletico Vega Real	2-1 HT 1-1	Universidad O&M
29/06/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	1-3 HT 0-2	Universidad O&M
22/05/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Universidad O&M	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real
18/04/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	0-1 HT 0-1	Universidad O&M

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Vega Real	Universidad O&M
Moca FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Salcedo FC	4-3 W	1-3 L
Delfines Del Este	0-2 L	2-2 D
Cibao FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
Atletico Pantoja	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Vega Real (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Vega Real

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/12	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-2	4-3	4	7	W
12/12	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
05/12	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
28/11	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
23/11	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
07/11	Atletico San Cristobal Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
01/11	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/10	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	1-3	5	7	L
20/10	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	1-3	2	6	L

Universidad O&M

LLWLLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/04	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
20/04	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-3	7	2	L
12/04	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
09/04	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-2	1-3	4	4	L
31/03	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
20/03	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-3	12	5	L
15/03	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	3-1	0	8	W
08/03	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-3	7	9	L
01/03	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-2	2-3	0	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Vega Real vs Universidad O&M?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Vega Real win (45%). Probabilities: Atletico Vega Real 45%, draw 25%, Universidad O&M 30%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Vega Real vs Universidad O&M?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Atletico Vega Real 1.82 · Universidad O&M 1.47), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Vega Real vs Universidad O&M?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.