Football · Albania First Division · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje vs Pogradeci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje0.91

Pogradeci1.39

1X2

24% 28% 48%

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje Draw Pogradeci

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLLWWDL

Pogradeci 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDLWD

Head-to-head

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 1–3–2 Pogradeci (6 last)

Pogradeci3-0KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
Pogradeci0-0KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje0-0Pogradeci
KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje0-0Pogradeci
Pogradeci3-0KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
Pogradeci0-1KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 1486 · Pogradeci 1530

	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	Draw	Pogradeci
Our model	23%	30%	47%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pogradeci (rating 1486 vs 1530).
H2H favours Pogradeci: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	Pogradeci
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.6	2.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:19 +49’	3.60	3.40	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 1–3–2 Pogradeci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Albania First Division	Pogradeci	3-0 HT 2-0	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
29/11/25 Albania First Division	Pogradeci	0-0 HT 0-0	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
30/08/25 Albania First Division	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	0-0 HT 0-0	Pogradeci
14/12/19 Albania First Division	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	0-0 HT 0-0	Pogradeci
21/09/19 Albania First Division	Pogradeci	3-0 HT 0-0	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje
03/02/18 Albania First Division	Pogradeci	0-1 HT 0-0	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

Standings · Albania First Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Besa Kavaje	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bylis Ballsh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Kukesi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kastrioti Krujë	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KS Korabi Peshkopi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KF Oriku	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KF Beslidhja Lezhe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KS Burreli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KS Flamurtari Vlore	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogradeci	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KS Sopoti Librazhd	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	Pogradeci
Besa Kavaje	0-2 L	0-0 D
Luftetari	1-2 L	0-3 L
Skenderbeu Korce	0-1 L	1-1 D
Laci	1-1 D	0-2 L
Kastrioti Krujë	1-0 W	3-0 W
KS Burreli	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pogradeci (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje

DWLDLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/05	Besa Kavaje Albania First Division	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	KS Korabi Peshkopi Albania First Division	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Apolonia Fier Albania First Division	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	KS Lushnja Albania First Division	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
11/04	Luftetari Albania First Division	0-1	1-2	2	1	L
04/04	Skenderbeu Korce Albania First Division	0-0	0-1	1	11	L
22/03	Laci Albania First Division	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
18/03	Pogradeci Albania First Division	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
14/03	Kastrioti Krujë Albania First Division	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/03	KS Burreli Albania First Division	0-0	0-0	8	2	D

Pogradeci

WWWWWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/05	Besa Kavaje Albania First Division	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
07/05	Kastrioti Krujë Albania First Division	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
03/05	Luftetari Albania First Division	0-2	0-3	1	0	L
25/04	Skenderbeu Korce Albania First Division	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
19/04	Laci Albania First Division	0-1	0-2	7	11	L
11/04	FK Kukesi Albania First Division	4-1	5-1	–	–	W
04/04	Kastrioti Krujë Albania First Division	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
22/03	KS Burreli Albania First Division	2-0	3-0	1	0	W
18/03	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje Albania First Division	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
14/03	Besa Kavaje Albania First Division	0-0	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje vs Pogradeci?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pogradeci win (48%). Probabilities: KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 24%, draw 28%, Pogradeci 48%.

How many goals are expected in KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje vs Pogradeci?

The model expects 2.3 goals (KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje 0.91 · Pogradeci 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje vs Pogradeci?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.