Football · Rwanda National League · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Bugesera vs Etincelles

Team pages: Bugesera · Etincelles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Bugesera1.26

Etincelles0.89

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Bugesera Draw Etincelles

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bugesera 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDLWL

Etincelles 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Bugesera 4–1–1 Etincelles (6 last)

Bugesera3-0Etincelles
Etincelles1-0Bugesera
Bugesera1-0Etincelles
Etincelles1-2Bugesera
Etincelles0-1Bugesera
Bugesera1-1Etincelles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bugesera 1479 · Etincelles 1531

	Bugesera	Draw	Etincelles
Our model	44%	31%	25%
Market	44%	31%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Etincelles (rating 1479 vs 1531).
H2H favours Bugesera: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bugesera	Etincelles
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 3	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.88

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +16’	2.05	2.88	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bugesera 4–1–1 Etincelles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Rwanda National League	Bugesera	3-0 HT 2-0	Etincelles
18/03/26 Rwanda Cup	Etincelles	1-0 HT 1-0	Bugesera
11/03/26 Rwanda Cup	Bugesera	1-0 HT 0-0	Etincelles
11/01/26 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	1-2 HT 1-0	Bugesera
24/05/25 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	0-1 HT 0-0	Bugesera
21/09/24 Rwanda National League	Bugesera	1-1 HT 1-1	Etincelles

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Etincelles	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
3	Amagaju	3	1	1	1	2	1	4
4	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
5	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Mukura	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	Marines FC	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
8	Police FC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Gorilla FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	Musanze FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	SC Kiyovu	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
12	Sunrise FC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Rayon Sports FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
14	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
15	Etoile de L'Est	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
16	AS Kigali	3	0	1	2	0	4	1
17	Bugesera	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gasogi Utd	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bugesera	Etincelles
SC Kiyovu	0-1 L	0-0 D
Marines FC	0-4 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Etincelles (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bugesera

WWLLLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
30/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
26/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
16/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
09/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
06/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-3	0-4	5	2	L
03/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
26/04	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
19/04	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
04/04	Etincelles Rwanda National League	2-0	3-0	1	1	W

Etincelles

WDDDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
05/09	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
30/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
16/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
10/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
02/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
26/04	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
18/04	APR FC Rwanda National League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bugesera vs Etincelles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bugesera win (44%). Probabilities: Bugesera 44%, draw 31%, Etincelles 25%.

How many goals are expected in Bugesera vs Etincelles?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Bugesera 1.26 · Etincelles 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Bugesera vs Etincelles?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.