Football · Rwanda National League · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Marines FC vs SC Kiyovu

Team pages: Marines FC · SC Kiyovu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Marines FC1.12

SC Kiyovu0.91

1X2

39% 32% 29%

Marines FC Draw SC Kiyovu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Marines FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLDWWL

SC Kiyovu 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDDLLW

Head-to-head

Marines FC 4–2 SC Kiyovu (6 last)

SC Kiyovu1-2Marines FC
Marines FC1-0SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu2-1Marines FC
Marines FC4-2SC Kiyovu
Marines FC3-0SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu2-1Marines FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marines FC 1497 · SC Kiyovu 1515

	Marines FC	Draw	SC Kiyovu
Our model	39%	33%	28%
Market	40%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Marines FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marines FC	SC Kiyovu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	0.5 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.6	3.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.88

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +8’	2.25	2.88	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marines FC 4–0–2 SC Kiyovu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	1-2 HT 0-2	Marines FC
14/12/25 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	1-0 HT 1-0	SC Kiyovu
07/03/25 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	2-1	Marines FC
20/10/24 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	4-2 HT 1-1	SC Kiyovu
24/02/24 Rwanda National League	Marines FC	3-0 HT 2-0	SC Kiyovu
14/10/23 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	2-1 HT 1-0	Marines FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Etincelles	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
3	Amagaju	3	1	1	1	2	1	4
4	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
5	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Mukura	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	Marines FC	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
8	Police FC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Gorilla FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	Musanze FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	SC Kiyovu	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
12	Sunrise FC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Rayon Sports FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
14	Al Merrikh	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
15	Etoile de L'Est	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
16	AS Kigali	3	0	1	2	0	4	1
17	Bugesera	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gasogi Utd	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marines FC	SC Kiyovu
AS Muhanga	3-2 W	1-1 D
Musanze FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Etincelles	2-3 L	0-0 D
Rayon Sports FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Bugesera	4-0 W	1-0 W
Police FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marines FC

LLDWLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	APR FC Rwanda National League	2-1	2-4	5	3	L
06/09	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	2-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
24/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	1-1	2-3	2	0	L
09/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
06/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	3-0	4-0	4	2	W
01/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	2-1	2-2	9	1	D
25/04	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
17/04	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

SC Kiyovu

DDWWDDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Bugesera Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/09	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
05/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
29/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
24/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/04	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marines FC vs SC Kiyovu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marines FC win (39%). Probabilities: Marines FC 39%, draw 32%, SC Kiyovu 29%.

How many goals are expected in Marines FC vs SC Kiyovu?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Marines FC 1.12 · SC Kiyovu 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Marines FC vs SC Kiyovu?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.