Football · Rwanda National League · 09/10, 16:00
Prediction: AS Kigali vs Gicumbi FC
Team pages: AS Kigali · Gicumbi FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
AS Kigali1.22
Gicumbi FC1.13
1X2
AS Kigali
Draw
Gicumbi FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
AS Kigali
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Gicumbi FC
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AS Kigali
3–3
Gicumbi FC
(6 last)
- AS Kigali2-1Gicumbi FC
- Gicumbi FC2-1AS Kigali
- AS Kigali1-0Gicumbi FC
- Gicumbi FC1-2AS Kigali
- AS Kigali1-2Gicumbi FC
- Gicumbi FC1-0AS Kigali
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AS Kigali 1444 · Gicumbi FC 1529
| AS Kigali | Draw | Gicumbi FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 31% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gicumbi FC (rating 1444 vs 1529).
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AS Kigali | Gicumbi FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 3.4 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AS Kigali 3–0–3 Gicumbi FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Rwanda National League | AS Kigali | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Gicumbi FC |
| 04/12/25 Rwanda National League | Gicumbi FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | AS Kigali |
| 14/03/22 Rwanda National League | AS Kigali | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gicumbi FC |
| 01/12/21 Rwanda National League | Gicumbi FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | AS Kigali |
| 08/12/19 Rwanda National League | AS Kigali | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Gicumbi FC |
| 30/04/19 Rwanda National League | Gicumbi FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | AS Kigali |
Standings · Rwanda National League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | APR FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Mukura | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Marines FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Police FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Gorilla FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Musanze FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | SC Kiyovu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sunrise FC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Rayon Sports FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Al Merrikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Etoile de L'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | AS Kigali | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AS Kigali | Gicumbi FC |
|---|---|---|
| Etoile de L'Est | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Rutsiro FC | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| APR FC | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Gasogi Utd | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AS Kigali
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Marines FC Rwanda National League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Musanze FC Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | APR FC Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Gorilla FC Rwanda National League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 24/04 | Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Gicumbi FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Amagaju Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Police FC Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | APR FC Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Mukura Rwanda National League |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | AS Kigali Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Bugesera Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Al Merrikh Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AS Kigali vs Gicumbi FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AS Kigali win (37%). Probabilities: AS Kigali 37%, draw 31%, Gicumbi FC 32%.
How many goals are expected in AS Kigali vs Gicumbi FC?
The model expects 2.35 goals (AS Kigali 1.22 · Gicumbi FC 1.13), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in AS Kigali vs Gicumbi FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.