Football · Danish Womens 1.Division · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: Sundby BK (W) vs AaB (W)

Team pages: Sundby BK (W) · AaB (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

Sundby BK (W)2.54

AaB (W)1.3

1X2

64% 19% 18%

Sundby BK (W) Draw AaB (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sundby BK (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWDD

AaB (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLLLWD

Head-to-head

Sundby BK (W) 4–2 AaB (W) (6 last)

Sundby BK (W)3-1AaB (W)
AaB (W)0-1Sundby BK (W)
AaB (W)5-0Sundby BK (W)
Sundby BK (W)0-6AaB (W)
Sundby BK (W)4-0AaB (W)
AaB (W)2-3Sundby BK (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sundby BK (W) 1587 · AaB (W) 1406

	Sundby BK (W)	Draw	AaB (W)
Our model	63%	19%	17%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sundby BK (W) (rating 1587 vs 1406).
H2H favours Sundby BK (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sundby BK (W)	AaB (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.6	1.1 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.3	0 / 1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:42 +5’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sundby BK (W) 4–0–2 AaB (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Denmark 1.Division Women Play-Offs	Sundby BK (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	AaB (W)
21/03/26 Danish Womens 1.Division	AaB (W)	0-1	Sundby BK (W)
27/05/23 Denmark Play-Offs Women	AaB (W)	5-0 HT 1-0	Sundby BK (W)
22/04/23 Denmark Play-Offs Women	Sundby BK (W)	0-6 HT 0-3	AaB (W)
21/05/22 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	Sundby BK (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	AaB (W)
14/04/22 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	AaB (W)	2-3 HT 1-0	Sundby BK (W)

Standings · Danish Womens 1.Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Osterbro IF (W)	6	5	0	1	19	7	15
2	Boldklubben AF 1893 (W)	6	4	0	2	12	9	12
3	Sundby BK (W)	6	3	2	1	14	9	11
4	FC Thy-Thisted Q (W)	6	3	1	2	20	18	10
5	Viborg (W)	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
6	Naestved HG (W)	6	2	1	3	6	7	7
7	AaB (W)	6	1	1	4	7	19	4
8	Esbjerg fB (W)	6	0	1	5	8	18	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sundby BK (W)	AaB (W)
Naestved HG (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Viborg (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Esbjerg fB (W)	2-1 W	4-2 W
FC Thy-Thisted Q (W)	6-3 W	3-6 L
Boldklubben AF 1893 (W)	2-0 W	0-4 L
Osterbro IF (W)	2-3 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sundby BK (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sundby BK (W)

WLWWLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Naestved HG (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
13/09	Viborg (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
05/09	Esbjerg fB (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	FC Thy-Thisted Q (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	6-3	–	–	W
22/08	Boldklubben AF 1893 (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/08	Osterbro IF (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
13/06	Esbjerg fB (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	1-1	5-1	–	–	W
30/05	Viborg (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/05	Boldklubben AF 1893 (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	Naestved HG (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	4-3	–	–	W

AaB (W)

DLDLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Viborg (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Esbjerg fB (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	4-2	–	–	W
06/09	FC Thy-Thisted Q (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	3-6	–	–	L
29/08	Boldklubben AF 1893 (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	0-1	0-4	0	1	L
22/08	Osterbro IF (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	0-6	–	–	L
15/08	Naestved HG (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
13/06	Naestved HG (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	1-7	–	–	L
31/05	Esbjerg fB (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
25/05	Viborg (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	0-5	–	–	L
02/05	Boldklubben AF 1893 (W) Danish Womens 1.Division	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sundby BK (W) vs AaB (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sundby BK (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Sundby BK (W) 64%, draw 19%, AaB (W) 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sundby BK (W) vs AaB (W)?

The model expects 3.85 goals (Sundby BK (W) 2.54 · AaB (W) 1.3), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sundby BK (W) vs AaB (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.