Football · Iraq Stars League · 15/08, 17:30

Prediction: Diyala FC vs Al Talaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Diyala FC0.97

Al Talaba1.45

1X2

24% 29% 47%

Diyala FC Draw Al Talaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Diyala FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWLLLW

Al Talaba 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDLDDD

Head-to-head

Diyala FC 0–2–2 Al Talaba (4 last)

Diyala FC0-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-1Diyala FC
Al Talaba0-0Diyala FC
Diyala FC0-1Al Talaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diyala FC 1454 · Al Talaba 1490

	Diyala FC	Draw	Al Talaba
Our model	24%	29%	47%
Market	24%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Talaba: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diyala FC	Al Talaba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.6	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.20

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.99 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:49 +8’	3.70	3.20	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:02 +1’	3.49	2.98	1.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Diyala FC 0–2–2 Al Talaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Talaba
27/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-1 HT 0-1	Diyala FC
14/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	0-0 HT 0-0	Diyala FC
12/12/24 Iraq League	Diyala FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Talaba

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Naft SC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
2	Newroz SC	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
4	Al Jolan SC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Naft Maysan	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
6	Al Gharraf	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Kahrabaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Karma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Minaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Mosul FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Shorta SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Talaba	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Zawra'a	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Diyala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Duhok	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Erbil SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Ghaz Al Shamal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Karbalaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Zakho	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Al Karkh	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diyala FC	Al Talaba
Al Karma	0-1 L	1-1 D
Al Gharraf	0-0 D	3-1 W
Mosul FC	1-4 L	2-2 D
Al Zawra'a	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Talaba (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diyala FC

WLLLDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
27/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
19/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
11/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	4	8	W
06/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
01/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
22/04	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
18/04	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

Al Talaba

WDLWLDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
19/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
11/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
05/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
01/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/04	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
22/04	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
18/04	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diyala FC vs Al Talaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Talaba win (47%). Probabilities: Diyala FC 24%, draw 29%, Al Talaba 47%.

How many goals are expected in Diyala FC vs Al Talaba?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Diyala FC 0.97 · Al Talaba 1.45), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Diyala FC vs Al Talaba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.