Football · Spain Tercera Group 17 · 08/11, 12:15

Prediction: CD Binefar vs AD Almudevar

Team pages: CD Binefar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

CD Binefar1.69

AD Almudevar1.27

1X2

46% 27% 27%

CD Binefar Draw AD Almudevar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Binefar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWWDD

AD Almudevar 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLDDLW

Head-to-head

CD Binefar 1–1–4 AD Almudevar (6 last)

AD Almudevar1-0CD Binefar
CD Binefar2-3AD Almudevar
CD Binefar1-1AD Almudevar
AD Almudevar2-0CD Binefar
CD Binefar0-2AD Almudevar
AD Almudevar1-2CD Binefar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Binefar 1520 · AD Almudevar 1514

	CD Binefar	Draw	AD Almudevar
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AD Almudevar: 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Binefar	AD Almudevar
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.9	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	– / –
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	//%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.7	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.82
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.27
2	3.30 → 3.80▲	Pinn 4.10 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:11 +10’	1.95	3.20	3.30
22:31 +5’	1.80▼	3.25▲	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:28 +13’	1.82	3.27	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Binefar 1–1–4 AD Almudevar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 17	AD Almudevar	1-0	CD Binefar
07/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 17	CD Binefar	2-3	AD Almudevar
02/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 17	CD Binefar	1-1	AD Almudevar
21/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 17	AD Almudevar	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Binefar
28/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 17	CD Binefar	0-2	AD Almudevar
10/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 17	AD Almudevar	1-2 HT 0-1	CD Binefar

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 17

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza B	9	6	2	1	21	8	20
2	Brea	9	5	3	1	13	4	18
3	Ejea	9	5	2	2	15	10	17
4	CD La Almunia	9	5	1	3	14	10	16
5	CD Cuarte	9	4	3	2	19	12	15
6	Huesca B	9	3	5	1	9	6	14
7	Caspe	9	3	5	1	15	11	14
8	Fraga	9	3	3	3	8	8	12
9	CD Binefar	9	3	3	3	18	17	12
10	Epila CF	9	3	3	3	12	11	12
11	Monzón	9	3	3	3	13	17	12
12	AD Almudevar	9	3	2	4	9	10	11
13	CD Sietamo	9	2	4	3	12	13	10
14	Illueca	9	3	1	5	9	12	10
15	Andorra CF	9	2	3	4	9	15	9
16	CDJ Tamarite	9	3	0	6	14	21	9
17	CD Robres	9	0	4	5	9	19	4
18	CD Belchite 97	9	0	3	6	5	20	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Binefar	AD Almudevar
Real Zaragoza B	3-3 D	0-4 L
Huesca B	1-1 D	0-0 D
Monzón	3-1 W	1-2 L
Andorra CF	4-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Binefar (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Binefar

WLWLLDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Real Zaragoza B Spain Tercera Group 17	2-1	3-3	6	6	D
25/10	Huesca B Spain Tercera Group 17	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
18/10	Monzón Spain Tercera Group 17	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/10	CD Robres Spain Tercera Group 17	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	Caspe Spain Tercera Group 17	–	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	CD La Almunia Spain Tercera Group 17	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	CDJ Tamarite Spain Tercera Group 17	–	2-3	–	–	L
06/09	Andorra CF Spain Tercera Group 17	–	4-2	–	–	W
09/05	Andorra CF Spain Tercera Group 17	–	3-4	–	–	L
03/05	CD Utrillas Spain Tercera Group 17	2-0	5-0	1	3	W

AD Almudevar

WWLWLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Andorra CF Spain Tercera Group 17	–	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	Real Zaragoza B Spain Tercera Group 17	–	0-4	–	–	L
17/10	CD Sietamo Spain Tercera Group 17	–	0-0	–	–	D
10/10	Huesca B Spain Tercera Group 17	–	0-0	–	–	D
04/10	Illueca Spain Tercera Group 17	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/09	Monzón Spain Tercera Group 17	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	CD Belchite 97 Spain Tercera Group 17	–	4-0	–	–	W
13/09	Fraga Spain Tercera Group 17	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/09	Ejea Spain Tercera Group 17	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	Huesca B Spain Tercera Group 17	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Binefar vs AD Almudevar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Binefar win (46%). Probabilities: CD Binefar 46%, draw 27%, AD Almudevar 27%.

How many goals are expected in CD Binefar vs AD Almudevar?

The model expects 2.95 goals (CD Binefar 1.69 · AD Almudevar 1.27), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Binefar vs AD Almudevar?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.