Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 05/09, 17:30

Prediction: CD Touring vs UD Aretxabaleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

CD Touring1.88

UD Aretxabaleta1.11

1X2

54% 25% 21%

CD Touring Draw UD Aretxabaleta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Touring 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLDLLL

UD Aretxabaleta 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWLLLW

Head-to-head

CD Touring 1–2–1 UD Aretxabaleta (4 last)

CD Touring2-1UD Aretxabaleta
UD Aretxabaleta1-1CD Touring
CD Touring0-0UD Aretxabaleta
UD Aretxabaleta3-2CD Touring

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Touring 1504 · UD Aretxabaleta 1479

	CD Touring	Draw	UD Aretxabaleta
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Touring	UD Aretxabaleta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	3.7 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	5.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +2’	1.75	3.40	4.00
00:47 +4’	1.67▼	3.50▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:20 +1’	1.70	3.44	4.41
23:39 +1’	1.68▼	3.55▲	4.40▼
00:50 +1’	1.66▼	3.61▲	4.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Touring 1–2–1 UD Aretxabaleta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Touring	2-1	UD Aretxabaleta
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	UD Aretxabaleta	1-1	CD Touring
27/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Touring	0-0	UD Aretxabaleta
15/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 4	UD Aretxabaleta	3-2 HT 2-0	CD Touring

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amurrio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aurrera de Vitoria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Derio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lagun Onak	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Ignacio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santurtzi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves C	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pasaia KE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad C	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Union B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cultural de Durango	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SD Beasain	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eibar C	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SD Erandio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leioa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sodupe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Touring	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Aretxabaleta	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Touring	UD Aretxabaleta
San Ignacio	1-2 L	1-0 W
CD Derio	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: UD Aretxabaleta (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Touring

LWWWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
09/05	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/04	CD Alaves C Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
11/04	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-0	0	8	W
01/04	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
28/03	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/03	Anorga KKE Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
14/03	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-4	–	–	L

UD Aretxabaleta

LLWDLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	Zamudio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-5	–	–	L
15/04	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	1-1	2-3	8	6	L
11/04	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/04	SD Deusto Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	0-3	9	5	L
29/03	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/03	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/03	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
07/03	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Touring vs UD Aretxabaleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Touring win (54%). Probabilities: CD Touring 54%, draw 25%, UD Aretxabaleta 21%.

How many goals are expected in CD Touring vs UD Aretxabaleta?

The model expects 3 goals (CD Touring 1.88 · UD Aretxabaleta 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Touring vs UD Aretxabaleta?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.