Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 05/09, 18:30

Prediction: CD Derio vs Real Sociedad C

Team pages: CD Derio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

CD Derio1.42

Real Sociedad C1.13

1X2

43% 28% 29%

CD Derio Draw Real Sociedad C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Derio 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDDDWWWL

Real Sociedad C 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

CD Derio 2–0 Real Sociedad C (2 last)

CD Derio3-1Real Sociedad C
Real Sociedad C0-2CD Derio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Derio 1519 · Real Sociedad C 1571

	CD Derio	Draw	Real Sociedad C
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad C (rating 1519 vs 1571).
H2H favours CD Derio: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Derio	Real Sociedad C
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.32 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +17’	2.15	3.20	3.00
22:44 +7’	2.45▲	3.10▼	2.63▼
03:19 +4’	2.10▼	3.20▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +8’	2.44	3.24	2.59
03:23	2.15▼	3.24	3.01▲
06:33	2.07▼	3.27▲	3.16▲
09:49 +1’	2.00▼	3.30▲	3.32▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Derio 2–0–0 Real Sociedad C

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	CD Derio	3-1	Real Sociedad C
12/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	Real Sociedad C	0-2 HT 0-0	CD Derio

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amurrio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aurrera de Vitoria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Derio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lagun Onak	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Ignacio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santurtzi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves C	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pasaia KE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad C	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Union B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cultural de Durango	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SD Beasain	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eibar C	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SD Erandio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leioa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sodupe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Touring	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Aretxabaleta	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Derio	Real Sociedad C
Lagun Onak	0-2 L	2-3 L
Zarautz	1-0 W	0-0 D
Anorga KKE	0-3 L	2-1 W
Cultural de Durango	4-0 W	4-0 W
UD Aretxabaleta	2-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Sociedad C (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Derio

WWLDDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	CD Alaves C Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	3-2	3	10	W
18/04	Aurrera de Vitoria Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	Leioa Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
01/04	Eibar C Spain Tercera Group 4	2-0	2-2	7	6	D
28/03	Anorga KKE Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-3	3	7	L
19/03	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
15/03	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	2-1	1	6	W

Real Sociedad C

LWLWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	Anorga KKE Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	Cultural de Durango Spain Tercera Group 4	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/04	UD Aretxabaleta Spain Tercera Group 4	–	5-2	–	–	W
16/04	Zamudio Spain Tercera Group 4	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
12/04	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
02/04	Zarautz Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
29/03	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/03	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/03	SD Deusto Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
07/03	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-4	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Derio vs Real Sociedad C?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Derio win (43%). Probabilities: CD Derio 43%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad C 29%.

How many goals are expected in CD Derio vs Real Sociedad C?

The model expects 2.54 goals (CD Derio 1.42 · Real Sociedad C 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Derio vs Real Sociedad C?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.