Football · Iraq Stars League · 14/08, 20:30

Prediction: Newroz SC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Newroz SC1

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.65

1X2

22% 26% 52%

Newroz SC Draw Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Newroz SC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLWWDL

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Newroz SC 1–1–4 Al Quwa Al Jawiya (6 last)

Newroz SC1-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2-1Newroz SC
Newroz SC0-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2-0Newroz SC
Newroz SC4-2Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-0Newroz SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newroz SC 1482 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1581

	Newroz SC	Draw	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Our model	22%	27%	51%
Market	22%	26%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya (rating 1482 vs 1581).
H2H favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newroz SC	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	1.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.50

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:19 +2’	4.00	3.50	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newroz SC 1–1–4 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
13/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-1 HT 0-1	Newroz SC
09/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
20/12/24 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-0 HT 0-0	Newroz SC
31/05/24 Iraq League	Newroz SC	4-2 HT 2-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
01/03/23 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-0 HT 0-0	Newroz SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Gharraf	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Jolan SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Kahrabaa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Karkh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Karma	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Minaa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mosul FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Naft SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naft Maysan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Shorta SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Talaba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Zawra'a	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Diyala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Duhok	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Erbil SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ghaz Al Shamal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karbalaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newroz SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zakho	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newroz SC	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Mosul FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Erbil SC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Al Kahrabaa	1-2 L	3-2 W
Al Karma	1-0 W	0-3 L
Al Talaba	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Quwa Al Jawiya (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newroz SC

LDDWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
27/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	12	4	L
05/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
01/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
27/04	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/04	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
17/04	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	2	5	L

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
15/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-3	2	9	L
06/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
02/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
27/04	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
23/04	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
13/04	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-2	3-2	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newroz SC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Quwa Al Jawiya win (52%). Probabilities: Newroz SC 22%, draw 26%, Al Quwa Al Jawiya 52%.

How many goals are expected in Newroz SC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Newroz SC 1 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.65), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newroz SC vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.