Football · Iraq Stars League · 14/08, 17:30

Prediction: Naft Maysan vs Al Jolan SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Naft Maysan1.66

Al Jolan SC1.15

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Naft Maysan Draw Al Jolan SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Naft Maysan 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDWWLW

Al Jolan SC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naft Maysan 1532 · Al Jolan SC 1505

	Naft Maysan	Draw	Al Jolan SC
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naft Maysan	Al Jolan SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.10

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:18 +9’	1.91	3.10	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Gharraf	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Jolan SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Kahrabaa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Karkh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Karma	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Minaa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mosul FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Naft SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naft Maysan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Shorta SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Talaba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Zawra'a	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Diyala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Duhok	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Erbil SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ghaz Al Shamal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karbalaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newroz SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zakho	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Naft Maysan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/06	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
28/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	5-2	10	3	W
14/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
10/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
05/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
01/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
26/04	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
17/04	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	3	5	W

Al Jolan SC

WWWLWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/05	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Premier League	0-1	2-3	2	9	L
07/05	Al-Hudood SC Iraq Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
02/05	Peshmerga Sulaymaniya SC Iraq Premier Division	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
28/04	Afak SC Iraq Premier League	2-0	3-1	8	2	W
19/04	Al-Jaish SC Iraq Premier League	2-2	5-4	5	4	W
14/04	Kadhimiya SC Iraq Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
28/03	Al Ramadi SC Iraq Premier Division	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
23/03	Karbalaa FC Iraq Premier Division	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/03	Maysan SC Iraq Premier Division	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/02	Naft Al-Wasat Iraq Premier Division	2-0	4-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naft Maysan vs Al Jolan SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Naft Maysan win (47%). Probabilities: Naft Maysan 47%, draw 28%, Al Jolan SC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Naft Maysan vs Al Jolan SC?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Naft Maysan 1.66 · Al Jolan SC 1.15), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Naft Maysan vs Al Jolan SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.