Football · Iraq Stars League · 14/08, 17:30

Prediction: Al Naft SC vs Al Karkh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Al Naft SC1.22

Al Karkh1

1X2

40% 30% 29%

Al Naft SC Draw Al Karkh

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Al Naft SC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLDDWW

Al Karkh 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWDWLD

Head-to-head

Al Naft SC 1–4–1 Al Karkh (6 last)

Al Naft SC0-1Al Karkh
Al Karkh2-2Al Naft SC
Al Karkh1-1Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC1-0Al Karkh
Al Karkh0-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC2-2Al Karkh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Naft SC 1482 · Al Karkh 1528

	Al Naft SC	Draw	Al Karkh
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karkh (rating 1482 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Naft SC	Al Karkh
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.7	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
07:14 +3’	2.20	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Naft SC 1–4–1 Al Karkh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Karkh
03/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	2-2 HT 1-2	Al Naft SC
27/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	1-1 HT 1-1	Al Naft SC
25/11/24 Iraq League	Al Naft SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Karkh
17/05/24 Iraq League	Al Karkh	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC
25/11/23 Iraq League	Al Naft SC	2-2 HT 1-0	Al Karkh

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Gharraf	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Jolan SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Kahrabaa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Karkh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Karma	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Minaa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mosul FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Naft SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naft Maysan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Shorta SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Talaba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Zawra'a	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Diyala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Duhok	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Erbil SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ghaz Al Shamal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karbalaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newroz SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zakho	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Naft SC	Al Karkh
Al Zawra'a	1-0 W	0-3 L
Al Karma	0-0 D	0-0 D
Al Shorta SC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Zakho	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Naft SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Naft SC

LDDLDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
27/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
19/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
05/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
01/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	0	9	L
27/04	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	12	D
22/04	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	7	5	L

Al Karkh

LDWLWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
20/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	4-1	5-2	4	3	W
15/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	6	8	D
11/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
06/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	3-1	2	7	W
02/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/04	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
22/04	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
18/04	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Naft SC vs Al Karkh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Naft SC win (40%). Probabilities: Al Naft SC 40%, draw 30%, Al Karkh 29%.

How many goals are expected in Al Naft SC vs Al Karkh?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Al Naft SC 1.22 · Al Karkh 1), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Naft SC vs Al Karkh?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.