Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 20/09, 19:00

Prediction: Santa Amalia vs At. Pueblonuevo

Team pages: At. Pueblonuevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Santa Amalia1.37

At. Pueblonuevo1.08

1X2

42% 29% 28%

Santa Amalia Draw At. Pueblonuevo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Amalia 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLLDW

At. Pueblonuevo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDWDL

Head-to-head

Santa Amalia 4–1–1 At. Pueblonuevo (6 last)

Santa Amalia3-2At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo0-2Santa Amalia
Santa Amalia1-0At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo1-2Santa Amalia
Santa Amalia1-1At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo4-3Santa Amalia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Amalia 1451 · At. Pueblonuevo 1484

	Santa Amalia	Draw	At. Pueblonuevo
Our model	42%	29%	28%
Market	42%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santa Amalia: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Amalia	At. Pueblonuevo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	2 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.15▼	Pinn 3.18 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:33 +4’	2.20	3.10	3.00
06:05 +4’	1.90▼	3.20▲	3.70▲
10:35 +4’	2.05▲	3.10▼	3.40▼
12:50 +5’	2.15▲	3.10	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:31 +126’	3.10	2.90	2.29
09:22 +77’	3.11▲	2.91▲	2.27▼
12:12 +42’	3.18▲	2.91	2.24▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Amalia 4–1–1 At. Pueblonuevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	Santa Amalia	3-2	At. Pueblonuevo
07/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	0-2	Santa Amalia
16/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	Santa Amalia	1-0 HT 0-0	At. Pueblonuevo
06/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	1-2	Santa Amalia
18/03/18 Spain Tercera Group 14	Santa Amalia	1-1	At. Pueblonuevo
29/10/17 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	4-3	Santa Amalia

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Llerenense	3	3	0	0	3	0	9
2	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	3	2	1	0	7	2	7
3	CD Azuaga	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
4	CD Zafra	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
5	Moralo	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
6	Santa Amalia	2	1	1	0	3	0	4
7	Jerez	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Castuera	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
9	CD Cabeza del Buey	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
10	SP Villafranca	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
11	CD Gevora	2	1	0	1	4	7	3
12	CF Jaraiz	3	0	1	2	4	6	1
13	At. Pueblonuevo	2	0	1	1	3	6	1
14	Plasencia	3	0	1	2	2	7	1
15	Villanovense	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
16	CD Guadiana	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
17	UD Montijo	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
18	CD Quintana	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Amalia	At. Pueblonuevo
CD Diocesano	0-0 D	2-1 W
CD Azuaga	0-4 L	1-0 W
CD Gevora	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: At. Pueblonuevo (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Amalia

LLDLLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	3-0	6	13	W
06/09	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/05	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
03/05	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	CD Diocesano Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
19/04	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
12/04	Don Benito Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
04/04	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	2-2	2	6	D
29/03	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-4	–	–	L
22/03	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-3	3	2	L

At. Pueblonuevo

WWLWLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	2-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Calamonte Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/04	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/04	CP Montehermoso Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/04	CD Diocesano Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
28/03	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Amalia vs At. Pueblonuevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Amalia win (42%). Probabilities: Santa Amalia 42%, draw 29%, At. Pueblonuevo 28%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Amalia vs At. Pueblonuevo?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Santa Amalia 1.37 · At. Pueblonuevo 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Amalia vs At. Pueblonuevo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.