Football · Brazil Serie A2 Women · 22/08, 21:00

Prediction: Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Sociedade Acao (W)

Team pages: Minas Brasilia DF (W) · Sociedade Acao (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Minas Brasilia DF (W)2.1

Sociedade Acao (W)0.48

1X2

75% 18% 7%

Minas Brasilia DF (W) Draw Sociedade Acao (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Minas Brasilia DF (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWDWW

Sociedade Acao (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWDDWL

Head-to-head

Minas Brasilia DF (W) 2–0 Sociedade Acao (W) (2 last)

Sociedade Acao (W)0-1Minas Brasilia DF (W)
Minas Brasilia DF (W)2-0Sociedade Acao (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minas Brasilia DF (W) 1584 · Sociedade Acao (W) 1498

	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Draw	Sociedade Acao (W)
Our model	75%	19%	6%
Market	76%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Minas Brasilia DF (W) (rating 1584 vs 1498).
H2H favours Minas Brasilia DF (W): 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Sociedade Acao (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.5	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:36 +20’	1.20	5.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Minas Brasilia DF (W) 2–0–0 Sociedade Acao (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Brazil Serie A2 Women	Sociedade Acao (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Minas Brasilia DF (W)
19/04/26 Brazil Serie A2 Women	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Sociedade Acao (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A2 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vasco da Gama (W)	15	13	2	0	52	10	41
2	Itabirito (W)	15	13	1	1	35	6	40
3	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	15	11	3	1	37	8	36
4	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W)	15	11	0	4	49	12	33
5	3B Sport AM (W)	15	7	5	3	23	12	26
6	Sociedade Acao (W)	15	7	4	4	20	17	25
7	Sport Recife (W)	15	7	3	5	18	14	24
8	Taubate (W)	15	5	3	7	23	18	18
9	Perolas Negras (W)	15	4	5	6	18	22	17
10	Paysandu (W)	15	4	3	8	14	28	15
11	Rio Negro RR (W)	15	4	3	8	13	27	15
12	Ceara (W)	15	4	1	10	12	26	13
13	Vila Nova GO (W)	15	4	1	10	13	33	13
14	Doce Mel EC (W)	15	3	4	8	12	27	13
15	UD Alagoana (W)	15	2	1	12	9	37	7
16	Itacoatiara (W)	15	1	1	13	9	60	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minas Brasilia DF (W)	Sociedade Acao (W)
Taubate (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Perolas Negras (W)	2-1 W	0-0 D
Paysandu (W)	5-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Minas Brasilia DF (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Minas Brasilia DF (W)

WWWDLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
01/08	Vasco da Gama (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-2	2-2	9	5	D
25/07	Ceara (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/05	Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
23/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/05	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
16/05	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	5-0	3	2	W
14/05	Vila Nova GO (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	0	5	W

Sociedade Acao (W)

WDWLLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Doce Mel EC (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	3-0	3-2	6	4	W
01/08	Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
25/07	Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
01/06	UD Alagoana (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
27/05	3B Sport AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
24/05	Itabirito (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Sport Recife (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
14/05	Mixto EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Sociedade Acao (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minas Brasilia DF (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Minas Brasilia DF (W) 75%, draw 18%, Sociedade Acao (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Sociedade Acao (W)?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Minas Brasilia DF (W) 2.1 · Sociedade Acao (W) 0.48), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Minas Brasilia DF (W) vs Sociedade Acao (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.