Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 15/08, 18:00
Prediction: Independiente del Valle (W) vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
Team pages: Independiente del Valle (W) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Independiente del Valle (W)2.05
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)0.84
1X2
Independiente del Valle (W)
Draw
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente del Valle (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente del Valle (W)
5–1–0
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
(6 last)
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)0-0Independiente del Valle (W)
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)1-2Independiente del Valle (W)
- Independiente del Valle (W)2-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
- Independiente del Valle (W)2-0Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)0-1Independiente del Valle (W)
- Independiente del Valle (W)1-0Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle (W) 1600 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1532
| Independiente del Valle (W) | Draw | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (W) (rating 1600 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle (W) | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 0.5 | 3.3 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/50/13% | 44/44/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 2.8 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle (W) 5–1–0 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 02/07/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 31/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 05/09/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 30/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 11/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 1-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 5 | 46 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 64 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 11 | 34 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 34 | 26 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 23 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 42 | 17 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 68 | 13 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 17 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 44 | 8 |
| 10 | Quito FC (W) | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 52 | 8 |
| 11 | EL Nacional (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 46 | 4 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle (W) | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
|---|---|---|
| EL Nacional (W) | 2-0 W | 8-0 W |
| LDU Quito (W) | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Macara (W) | 6-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Emelec (W) | 13-0 W | 7-0 W |
| CD Espuce (W) | 5-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/07 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
5-0 | 13-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 12/07 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 02/07 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle (W) vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle (W) win (65%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle (W) 65%, draw 22%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 14%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle (W) vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Independiente del Valle (W) 2.05 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 0.84), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle (W) vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.