Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 16/08, 19:00

Prediction: LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Team pages: LDU Quito (W) · Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

LDU Quito (W)1.93

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)1.01

1X2

58% 23% 19%

LDU Quito (W) Draw Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LDU Quito (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

LDU Quito (W) 5–1–0 Barcelona Guayaquil (W) (6 last)

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)1-1LDU Quito (W)
LDU Quito (W)2-0Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)0-2LDU Quito (W)
LDU Quito (W)3-0Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)0-2LDU Quito (W)
LDU Quito (W)2-1Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LDU Quito (W) 1645 · Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 1557

	LDU Quito (W)	Draw	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (W) (rating 1645 vs 1557).
H2H favours LDU Quito (W): 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LDU Quito (W)	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	86/14/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.9	2.6 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.6	3.8 / 1.4

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:16 +11’	1.53	3.90	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito (W) 5–1–0 Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Ecuador Primera Women	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	LDU Quito (W)
25/07/26 Ecuador Primera Women	LDU Quito (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
17/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	LDU Quito (W)
06/09/25 Ecuador Primera Women	LDU Quito (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
29/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	LDU Quito (W)
10/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women	LDU Quito (W)	2-1	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Standings · Ecuador Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LDU Quito (W)	17	15	1	1	72	5	46
2	Independiente del Valle (W)	16	13	2	1	64	6	41
3	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)	17	13	2	2	46	9	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	15	11	1	3	48	11	34
5	Deportivo Ibarra (W)	17	8	2	7	32	34	26
6	Carneras UPS (W)	17	7	2	8	13	26	23
7	Macara (W)	18	5	2	11	21	42	17
8	Emelec (W)	16	4	1	11	11	68	13
9	CD Espuce (W)	17	2	2	13	13	44	8
10	Quito FC (W)	16	2	2	12	14	52	8
11	EL Nacional (W)	14	1	1	12	9	46	4
12	Deportivo Cuenca Women	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LDU Quito (W)	Barcelona Guayaquil (W)
Independiente del Valle (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Ibarra (W)	6-1 W	4-0 W
Emelec (W)	12-0 W	1-0 W
Carneras UPS (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
CD Espuce (W)	5-0 W	5-0 W
Macara (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LDU Quito (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
25/07	Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
19/07	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/07	EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	4-0	14	1	W
05/07	Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women	2-1	6-1	3	4	W
28/06	Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	12-0	–	–	W
23/06	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/05	CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	5-0	–	–	W
27/05	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	3-0	–	–	W

Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
31/07	Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	4-0	–	–	W
25/07	LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
17/07	Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/07	Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
09/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
27/06	Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	5-0	–	–	W
24/06	Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women	2-0	2-1	6	8	W
30/05	Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/05	CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women	–	5-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito (W) win (58%). Probabilities: LDU Quito (W) 58%, draw 23%, Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)?

The model expects 2.94 goals (LDU Quito (W) 1.93 · Barcelona Guayaquil (W) 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.