Football · Vietnam V-League · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: Hai Phong vs Ninh Binh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Hai Phong1.21

Ninh Binh1.61

1X2

28% 27% 46%

Hai Phong Draw Ninh Binh

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hai Phong 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Ninh Binh 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hai Phong 1–1–2 Ninh Binh (4 last)

Ninh Binh2-1Hai Phong
Hai Phong1-2Ninh Binh
Hai Phong2-2Ninh Binh
Ninh Binh1-3Hai Phong

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ninh Binh (rating 1459 vs 1574).
H2H favours Ninh Binh: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hai Phong	Ninh Binh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.79

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.92 → 3.29▲	Pinn 3.29
X	3.48 → 3.65▲	Pinn 3.65
2	2.16 → 1.94▼	Pinn 1.94

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:50	2.92	3.48	2.16
15:45	3.29▲	3.65▲	1.94▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hai Phong 1–1–2 Ninh Binh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Vietnam V-League	Ninh Binh	2-1 HT 1-0	Hai Phong
23/11/25 Vietnam Cup	Hai Phong	1-2 HT 1-0	Ninh Binh
28/09/25 Vietnam V-League	Hai Phong	2-2 HT 1-1	Ninh Binh
07/04/22 Vietnam Cup	Ninh Binh	1-3 HT 1-1	Hai Phong

Standings · Vietnam V-League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bac Ninh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cong An Ha Noi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cong An HCMC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hai Phong	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ha Noi FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hong Linh Ha Tinh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nam Dinh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ninh Binh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Da Nang	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Song Lam Nghe An	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thanh Hoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Viettel FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Truong Tuoi Dong Nai	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hai Phong	Ninh Binh
PVF-CAND	1-3 L	3-0 W
Becamex HCMC	4-2 W	2-1 W
Hoang Anh Gia Lai	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hong Linh Ha Tinh	0-1 L	3-0 W
Cong An HCMC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Ha Noi FC	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hai Phong

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/06	Nam Dinh Vietnam V-League	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
31/05	PVF-CAND Vietnam V-League	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
23/05	Da Nang Vietnam V-League	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
16/05	Becamex HCMC Vietnam V-League	2-2	4-2	3	1	W
09/05	Ninh Binh Vietnam V-League	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
02/05	Cong An Ha Noi Vietnam V-League	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
24/04	Hoang Anh Gia Lai Vietnam V-League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/04	Hong Linh Ha Tinh Vietnam V-League	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
11/04	Cong An HCMC Vietnam V-League	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
04/04	Ha Noi FC Vietnam V-League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Ninh Binh

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/06	Hong Linh Ha Tinh Vietnam V-League	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
31/05	Thanh Hoa Vietnam V-League	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
23/05	Cong An HCMC Vietnam V-League	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
16/05	Song Lam Nghe An Vietnam V-League	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
09/05	Hai Phong Vietnam V-League	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
03/05	Viettel FC Vietnam V-League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
24/04	Ha Noi FC Vietnam V-League	1-2	2-3	10	3	L
18/04	PVF-CAND Vietnam V-League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/04	Becamex HCMC Vietnam V-League	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
05/04	Hoang Anh Gia Lai Vietnam V-League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hai Phong vs Ninh Binh?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ninh Binh win (46%). Probabilities: Hai Phong 28%, draw 27%, Ninh Binh 46%.

How many goals are expected in Hai Phong vs Ninh Binh?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Hai Phong 1.21 · Ninh Binh 1.61), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hai Phong vs Ninh Binh?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.