Football · Spain Tercera Group 16 · 05/09, 18:30

Prediction: Yagüe vs Berceo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Yagüe1.6

Berceo1.27

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Yagüe Draw Berceo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Yagüe 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Berceo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWLLWL

Head-to-head

Yagüe 3–1–2 Berceo (6 last)

Berceo2-0Yagüe
Yagüe2-2Berceo
Yagüe0-1Berceo
Berceo0-1Yagüe
Yagüe2-1Berceo
Berceo0-1Yagüe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yagüe 1447 · Berceo 1465

	Yagüe	Draw	Berceo
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Yagüe: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yagüe	Berceo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	0/75/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 4.8	0.5 / 1.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.6	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.07
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.24 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +5’	2.05	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +8’	2.07	3.17	3.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yagüe 3–1–2 Berceo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 16	Berceo	2-0 HT 0-0	Yagüe
03/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 16	Yagüe	2-2 HT 0-0	Berceo
08/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 16	Yagüe	0-1 HT 0-0	Berceo
29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 16	Berceo	0-1 HT 0-1	Yagüe
21/01/23 Spain Tercera Group 16	Yagüe	2-1 HT 1-1	Berceo
17/09/22 Spain Tercera Group 16	Berceo	0-1 HT 0-0	Yagüe

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 16

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	River Ebro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CA Vianes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Casalarreina CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Agoncillo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alfaro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Anguiano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berceo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Calahorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cenicero	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pradejón	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Marcial	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Varea	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC La Calzada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Haro Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Comillas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Calasancio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oyonesa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yagüe	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yagüe	Berceo
CD Calahorra	4-4 D	0-2 L
UD Logrones B	0-3 L	1-2 L
Oyonesa	2-2 D	0-3 L
Pradejón	1-1 D	4-1 W
Anguiano	4-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Yagüe (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yagüe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	CD Calahorra Spain Tercera Group 16	2-2	4-4	6	6	D
30/04	Berceo Spain Tercera Group 16	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
26/04	Comillas Spain Tercera Group 16	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
19/04	UD Logrones B Spain Tercera Group 16	0-1	0-3	4	7	L
12/04	CA Vianes Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-1	–	–	L
01/04	Oyonesa Spain Tercera Group 16	2-0	2-2	6	9	D
29/03	Arnedo Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-3	–	–	L
22/03	Pradejón Spain Tercera Group 16	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
14/03	San Marcial Spain Tercera Group 16	0-0	0-1	4	11	L
08/03	Anguiano Spain Tercera Group 16	1-1	4-2	4	6	W

Berceo

LWDLWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Autol Spain Tercera Group 16	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/04	Yagüe Spain Tercera Group 16	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
26/04	UD Logrones B Spain Tercera Group 16	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
19/04	Oyonesa Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/04	Pradejón Spain Tercera Group 16	–	4-1	–	–	W
02/04	Anguiano Spain Tercera Group 16	–	2-1	–	–	W
28/03	Haro Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 16	0-1	2-3	0	5	L
21/03	Agoncillo Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/03	Villegas Spain Tercera Group 16	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
08/03	CD Calahorra Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yagüe vs Berceo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yagüe win (44%). Probabilities: Yagüe 44%, draw 27%, Berceo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Yagüe vs Berceo?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Yagüe 1.6 · Berceo 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Yagüe vs Berceo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.