Football · Malta Premier League · 17/08, 18:00

Prediction: Birkirkara vs Gzira United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.93Total

Birkirkara1.05

Gzira United0.88

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Birkirkara Draw Gzira United

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Birkirkara 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDDDWL

Gzira United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLLLDW

Head-to-head

Birkirkara 2–3–1 Gzira United (6 last)

Gzira United2-0Birkirkara
Birkirkara0-0Gzira United
Birkirkara2-2Gzira United
Gzira United0-1Birkirkara
Gzira United0-0Birkirkara
Birkirkara3-2Gzira United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birkirkara 1465 · Gzira United 1489

	Birkirkara	Draw	Gzira United
Our model	37%	34%	29%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 1.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Birkirkara: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birkirkara	Gzira United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +2’	2.25	3.10	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Birkirkara 2–3–1 Gzira United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	2-0 HT 0-0	Birkirkara
23/08/25 Malta Premier League	Birkirkara	0-0 HT 0-0	Gzira United
18/01/25 Malta Premier League	Birkirkara	2-2 HT 1-1	Gzira United
26/10/24 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	0-1 HT 0-1	Birkirkara
20/04/24 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	0-0 HT 0-0	Birkirkara
16/12/23 Malta Premier League	Birkirkara	3-2 HT 1-0	Gzira United

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Floriana	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	Balzan FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
2	Marsaxlokk FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Birkirkara	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Gzira United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Hamrun Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Hibernians	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Mosta FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sliema Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Valletta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Birzebbuga	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birkirkara	Gzira United
Mosta FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Valletta	1-3 L	1-2 L
Floriana	2-2 D	0-1 L
Hamrun Spartans	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gzira United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Birkirkara

LDLWLDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sliema Wanderers Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-3	6	2	L
18/07	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
30/04	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	0	D
24/04	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
18/04	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/04	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
11/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
04/04	Valletta Malta FA Trophy	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
14/03	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
08/03	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L

Gzira United

DLWLDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Marsaxlokk FC Europe Friendlies	–	1-0	–	–	W
24/07	Mosta FC Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
17/07	Balzan FC Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	3	0	L
23/05	Valletta Malta FA Trophy	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
30/04	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
26/04	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
19/04	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
15/04	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
04/04	Naxxar Lions Malta FA Trophy	0-1	1-1	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birkirkara vs Gzira United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birkirkara win (39%). Probabilities: Birkirkara 39%, draw 31%, Gzira United 30%.

How many goals are expected in Birkirkara vs Gzira United?

The model expects 1.93 goals (Birkirkara 1.05 · Gzira United 0.88), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Birkirkara vs Gzira United?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.