Football · Malta Premier League · 17/08, 20:30
Prediction: Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Hamrun Spartans2.27
Mosta FC0.71
1X2
Hamrun Spartans
Draw
Mosta FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Hamrun Spartans
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Mosta FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamrun Spartans
2–4
Mosta FC
(6 last)
- Mosta FC2-1Hamrun Spartans
- Hamrun Spartans2-0Mosta FC
- Mosta FC0-2Hamrun Spartans
- Hamrun Spartans1-2Mosta FC
- Hamrun Spartans1-2Mosta FC
- Mosta FC1-0Hamrun Spartans
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamrun Spartans 1518 · Mosta FC 1466
| Hamrun Spartans | Draw | Mosta FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | 72% | 19% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamrun Spartans (rating 1518 vs 1466).
- H2H favours Mosta FC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamrun Spartans | Mosta FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.6 | 1.2 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamrun Spartans 2–0–4 Mosta FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Malta Premier League | Mosta FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Hamrun Spartans |
| 13/09/25 Malta Premier League | Hamrun Spartans | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Mosta FC |
| 12/04/25 Malta Premier League | Mosta FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Hamrun Spartans |
| 09/03/25 Malta Premier League | Hamrun Spartans | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Mosta FC |
| 17/12/24 Malta Premier League | Hamrun Spartans | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Mosta FC |
| 15/09/24 Malta Premier League | Mosta FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hamrun Spartans |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floriana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Balzan FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | Birkirkara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gzira United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Hamrun Spartans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Hibernians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Mosta FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Sliema Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Valletta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamrun Spartans | Mosta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Naxxar Lions | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gzira United | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamrun Spartans
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | NSI Runavik UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | NSI Runavik UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 15/05 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/04 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 15/03 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 8 | L |
Mosta FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Balzan FC Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 24/07 | Gzira United Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Birzebbuga Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/04 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 24/04 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 15/04 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 15/03 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamrun Spartans win (72%). Probabilities: Hamrun Spartans 72%, draw 19%, Mosta FC 9%.
How many goals are expected in Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta FC?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Hamrun Spartans 2.27 · Mosta FC 0.71), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamrun Spartans vs Mosta FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.