Football · Egypt Division 1 · 03/09, 19:00
Prediction: Al Ahly Cairo vs Smouha
Team pages: Al Ahly Cairo · Smouha
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Al Ahly Cairo2.04
Smouha0.48
1X2
Al Ahly Cairo
Draw
Smouha
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Al Ahly Cairo
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Smouha
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Al Ahly Cairo
5–1–0
Smouha
(6 last)
- Al Ahly Cairo2-1Smouha
- Smouha0-1Al Ahly Cairo
- Al Ahly Cairo2-0Smouha
- Smouha0-1Al Ahly Cairo
- Al Ahly Cairo0-0Smouha
- Smouha0-2Al Ahly Cairo
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Ahly Cairo (rating 1607 vs 1428).
- H2H favours Al Ahly Cairo: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Ahly Cairo | Smouha | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.3 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Ahly Cairo 5–1–0 Smouha
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Egypt Division 1 | Al Ahly Cairo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Smouha |
| 23/02/26 Egypt Division 1 | Smouha | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Al Ahly Cairo |
| 07/01/25 Egypt Division 1 | Al Ahly Cairo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Smouha |
| 08/08/24 Egypt Division 1 | Smouha | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Al Ahly Cairo |
| 28/11/23 Egypt Division 1 | Al Ahly Cairo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Smouha |
| 17/04/23 Egypt Division 1 | Smouha | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Al Ahly Cairo |
Standings · Egypt Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Ahly Cairo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | El Masry | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Talaea El Geish | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | El Zamalek | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Modern Sport FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Wadi Degla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Qanah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Abo Qir Semad | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | El Gounah | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Asyut Petroleum | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Petrojet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 14 | Smouha | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Al Ittihad Al Sakandary | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | ZED FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Al Moqawloon Al Arab | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Enppi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 | National Bank | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mahallah | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Al Ahly Cairo | Smouha |
|---|---|---|
| Enppi | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| El Masry | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| El Zamalek | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Pyramids FC | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Ceramica Cleopatra | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Al Ahly Cairo (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Ahly Cairo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | ZED FC Egypt Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Enppi Egypt Division 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | El Masry Egypt Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Enppi Egypt Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | El Zamalek Egypt Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 27/04 | Pyramids FC Egypt Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Smouha Egypt Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 07/04 | Ceramica Cleopatra Egypt Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 09/03 | Talaea El Geish Egypt Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/03 | Al Moqawloon Al Arab Egypt Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Smouha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Asyut Petroleum Egypt Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | El Masry Egypt Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Pyramids FC Egypt Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/05 | El Zamalek Egypt Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 27/04 | El Masry Egypt Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/04 | Ceramica Cleopatra Egypt Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Al Ahly Cairo Egypt Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/04 | Enppi Egypt Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 07/03 | Modern Sport FC Egypt Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/03 | National Bank Egypt Division 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al Ahly Cairo vs Smouha?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Ahly Cairo win (74%). Probabilities: Al Ahly Cairo 74%, draw 20%, Smouha 7%.
How many goals are expected in Al Ahly Cairo vs Smouha?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Al Ahly Cairo 2.04 · Smouha 0.48), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Al Ahly Cairo vs Smouha?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.