Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 07/08, 18:30

Prediction: Chomutov vs SK Rapid Psary

Team pages: Chomutov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Chomutov2.08

SK Rapid Psary1.43

1X2

52% 23% 26%

Chomutov Draw SK Rapid Psary

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chomutov 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWDD

SK Rapid Psary 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWDWDL

Head-to-head

Chomutov 1–1 SK Rapid Psary (2 last)

Chomutov2-3SK Rapid Psary
SK Rapid Psary1-5Chomutov

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chomutov 1543 · SK Rapid Psary 1519

	Chomutov	Draw	SK Rapid Psary
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chomutov	SK Rapid Psary
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:49 +3’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chomutov 1–0–1 SK Rapid Psary

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Chomutov	2-3 HT 2-2	SK Rapid Psary
27/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	SK Rapid Psary	1-5 HT 1-1	Chomutov

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hlucin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Vratimov	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SSK Bilovec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Bohumin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Frydek Mistek B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TJ Novy Jicin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Sumperk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kravare	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Opava B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pusta Polom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jiskra Rymarov	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Stonava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Zabreh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bridlicna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TJ Valasske Mezirici	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chomutov	SK Rapid Psary
Viktoria Marianske Lazne	3-0 W	1-1 D
Meteor Prague VIII	2-1 W	5-2 W
SK Ujezd Praha 4	3-2 W	1-1 D
FK Usti nad Labem B	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chomutov

LLWWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Karlovy Vary Czechia Cup	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
13/06	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
05/06	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	4-1	6	1	W
30/05	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
22/05	FK Louny Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
15/05	Viktoria Marianske Lazne Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
08/05	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
05/05	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-2	5	5	W
02/05	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
24/04	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	2-3	5	5	L

SK Rapid Psary

DWWDDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Motorlet Praha Czechia Cup	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
13/06	Viktoria Marianske Lazne Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
06/06	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
30/05	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
23/05	FC Predni Kopanina Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	6-0	–	–	W
16/05	TJ Spoje Praha Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/05	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
02/05	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
24/04	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
18/04	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chomutov vs SK Rapid Psary?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chomutov win (52%). Probabilities: Chomutov 52%, draw 23%, SK Rapid Psary 26%.

How many goals are expected in Chomutov vs SK Rapid Psary?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Chomutov 2.08 · SK Rapid Psary 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chomutov vs SK Rapid Psary?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.