Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women · 24/10, 16:30
Prediction: Benfica (W) vs Sporting (W)
Team pages: Benfica (W) · Sporting (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Benfica (W)2.08
Sporting (W)0.81
1X2
Benfica (W)
Draw
Sporting (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Benfica (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Sporting (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Benfica (W)
4–2–0
Sporting (W)
(6 last)
- Benfica (W)3-1Sporting (W)
- Sporting (W)1-1Benfica (W)
- Benfica (W)3-2Sporting (W)
- Benfica (W)2-1Sporting (W)
- Benfica (W)1-1Sporting (W)
- Sporting (W)0-2Benfica (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Benfica (W) 1644 · Sporting (W) 1545
| Benfica (W) | Draw | Sporting (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (W) (rating 1644 vs 1545).
- H2H favours Benfica (W): 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Benfica (W) | Sporting (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.5 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.5 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica (W) 4–2–0 Sporting (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Benfica (W) | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Sporting (W) |
| 21/12/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Benfica (W) |
| 22/03/25 Portugal Cup Women | Benfica (W) | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Sporting (W) |
| 09/03/25 Portugal League Cup Women | Benfica (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sporting (W) |
| 01/02/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Benfica (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sporting (W) |
| 30/09/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Benfica (W) |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Torreense (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Benfica (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Braga (W) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | FC Porto (W) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Racing Power (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Rio Ave (W) | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 9 | Guimaraes (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 | Maritimo (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Benfica (W) | Sporting (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo (W) | 4-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Rio Ave (W) | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Racing Power (W) | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Braga (W) | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Torreense (W) | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Benfica (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Benfica (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 18/09 | Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | Sporting (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 22/03 | Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 14/03 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 22/02 | SF Damaiense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 27/09 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/09 | Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Vitoria SC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 01/05 | Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/04 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Benfica (W) vs Sporting (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica (W) win (66%). Probabilities: Benfica (W) 66%, draw 21%, Sporting (W) 13%.
How many goals are expected in Benfica (W) vs Sporting (W)?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Benfica (W) 2.08 · Sporting (W) 0.81), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Benfica (W) vs Sporting (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.