Football · England FA WSL 2 · 06/09, 13:00
Prediction: Durham (W) vs Southampton (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Durham (W)1.17
Southampton (W)1.54
1X2
Durham (W)
Draw
Southampton (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Durham (W)
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Southampton (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Durham (W)
2–3–1
Southampton (W)
(6 last)
- Durham (W)0-0Southampton (W)
- Southampton (W)1-1Durham (W)
- Durham (W)1-0Southampton (W)
- Southampton (W)1-1Durham (W)
- Durham (W)1-0Southampton (W)
- Southampton (W)2-1Durham (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Durham (W) 1490 · Southampton (W) 1537
| Durham (W) | Draw | Southampton (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (W) (rating 1490 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Durham (W): 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Durham (W) | Southampton (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.7 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Durham (W) 2–3–1 Southampton (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 England FA WSL 2 | Durham (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Southampton (W) |
| 16/11/25 England FA WSL 2 | Southampton (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Durham (W) |
| 26/01/25 England Championship Women | Durham (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Southampton (W) |
| 10/11/24 England Championship Women | Southampton (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Durham (W) |
| 17/12/23 England Championship Women | Durham (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Southampton (W) |
| 15/10/23 England Championship Women | Southampton (W) | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Durham (W) |
Standings · England FA WSL 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burnley (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | Watford (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Bristol City (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Durham (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Leicester (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Newcastle (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nottm Forest (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Sheff Utd (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Southampton (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Sunderland (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Durham (W) | Southampton (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Sheff Utd (W) | 2-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Bristol City (W) | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Nottm Forest (W) | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Ipswich Town (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Sunderland (W) | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Charlton (W) | 2-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Birmingham (W) | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Southampton (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Durham (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/04 | Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 29/03 | Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Southampton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 15/03 | Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/02 | Sunderland (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 15/02 | Charlton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 08/02 | Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/02 | Portsmouth (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Southampton (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Charlton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 22/03 | Durham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 15/03 | Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/02 | Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/02 | Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 01/02 | Crystal Palace (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/01 | Sunderland (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Durham (W) vs Southampton (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Southampton (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Durham (W) 28%, draw 26%, Southampton (W) 45%.
How many goals are expected in Durham (W) vs Southampton (W)?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Durham (W) 1.17 · Southampton (W) 1.54), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Durham (W) vs Southampton (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.