Football · Panama Liga Prom · 06/08, 22:00

Prediction: Chorrillo vs Alianza FC Reserves

Team pages: Chorrillo · Alianza FC Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Chorrillo2.19

Alianza FC Reserves1.4

1X2

55% 22% 23%

Chorrillo Draw Alianza FC Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chorrillo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLDW

Alianza FC Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Chorrillo 1–4–1 Alianza FC Reserves (6 last)

Chorrillo0-2Alianza FC Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves0-0Chorrillo
Chorrillo4-0Alianza FC Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves2-2Chorrillo
Alianza FC Reserves2-2Chorrillo
Chorrillo1-1Alianza FC Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorrillo 1447 · Alianza FC Reserves 1465

	Chorrillo	Draw	Alianza FC Reserves
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	54%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorrillo	Alianza FC Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3.1	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/25/75%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65
X	4.50 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	5.50 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:53 +3’	1.40	4.50	5.50
06:46 +2’	1.65▲	4.00▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorrillo 1–4–1 Alianza FC Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	0-2 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Reserves
16/01/26 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	Chorrillo
03/10/25 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	4-0 HT 3-0	Alianza FC Reserves
18/07/25 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	2-2 HT 1-1	Chorrillo
26/04/25 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	2-2 HT 2-1	Chorrillo
01/02/25 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	1-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potros Del Este	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
2	Chorrillo	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
3	Plaza Amador Reserves	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
4	San Martin FC	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
5	Tauro FC Reserves	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
6	Alianza FC Reserves	2	0	0	2	2	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorrillo	Alianza FC Reserves
San Martin FC	4-1 W	1-4 L
Tauro FC Reserves	2-2 D	2-1 W
Plaza Amador Reserves	0-4 L	1-4 L
Potros Del Este	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorrillo

LLLWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W
24/07	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
30/04	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
23/04	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-4	0-4	4	6	L
16/04	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
10/04	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-3	5	9	L
02/04	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	4-0	2	4	W
28/03	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
20/03	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-2	0-7	3	7	L
14/03	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	–	3-4	–	–	L

Alianza FC Reserves

WLLLWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/04	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
24/04	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	11	5	D
17/04	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/04	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
01/04	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	8	11	L
26/03	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	1-2	2-5	2	4	L
22/03	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/03	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorrillo vs Alianza FC Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chorrillo win (55%). Probabilities: Chorrillo 55%, draw 22%, Alianza FC Reserves 23%.

How many goals are expected in Chorrillo vs Alianza FC Reserves?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Chorrillo 2.19 · Alianza FC Reserves 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorrillo vs Alianza FC Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.