Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 07/08, 14:45

Prediction: Ferroviario Lichinga vs UD Songo

Team pages: Ferroviario Lichinga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Ferroviario Lichinga1.07

UD Songo1.34

1X2

28% 31% 41%

Ferroviario Lichinga Draw UD Songo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviario Lichinga 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDWWLL

UD Songo 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDDWWDDW

Head-to-head

Ferroviario Lichinga 0–1–1 UD Songo (2 last)

Ferroviario Lichinga1-4UD Songo
UD Songo1-1Ferroviario Lichinga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviario Lichinga 1494 · UD Songo 1553

	Ferroviario Lichinga	Draw	UD Songo
Our model	29%	30%	42%
Market	27%	32%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD Songo (rating 1494 vs 1553).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviario Lichinga	UD Songo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	5.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X2.80

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:54 +12’	3.25	2.80	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario Lichinga 0–1–1 UD Songo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/10/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Lichinga	1-4 HT 1-2	UD Songo
29/06/25 Mozambique Mocambola	UD Songo	1-1 HT 1-1	Ferroviario Lichinga

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	10	5	5	0	13	3	20
2	Ferroviario Beira	10	5	5	0	12	4	20
3	Costa Do Sol	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
4	UD Songo	9	4	4	1	12	8	16
5	Ferroviario de Nampula	7	4	1	2	11	11	13
6	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	8	3	3	2	6	7	12
7	Ferroviario Maputo	9	3	2	4	5	5	11
8	Ferroviario Lichinga	8	3	2	3	6	7	11
9	LD Sofala	10	2	5	3	5	10	11
10	Vilankulo FC	9	1	6	2	10	9	9
11	AD Pemba	8	2	2	4	5	10	8
12	Chingale de Tete	9	0	4	5	1	8	4
13	Baía de Pemba F.C	8	0	4	4	3	7	4
14	CD Maxaquene	9	0	4	5	4	11	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviario Lichinga	UD Songo
Ferroviario Maputo	0-2 L	2-0 W
Black Bulls	0-1 L	1-1 D
CD Maxaquene	2-1 W	2-1 W
Costa Do Sol	2-1 W	2-2 D
Baía de Pemba F.C	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviario Lichinga

WDDWLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
24/07	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
29/06	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	2-1	11	1	W
26/06	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
20/06	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/06	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
26/11	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	2-2	2	2	D
19/11	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

UD Songo

DWLDDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/07	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/06	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
17/06	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
22/05	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/05	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
10/05	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-3	10	8	L
03/05	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/12	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-2	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviario Lichinga vs UD Songo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UD Songo win (41%). Probabilities: Ferroviario Lichinga 28%, draw 31%, UD Songo 41%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviario Lichinga vs UD Songo?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Ferroviario Lichinga 1.07 · UD Songo 1.34), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviario Lichinga vs UD Songo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.