Football · Costa Rica Primera Division Women · 04/10, 04:15

Prediction: Alajuelense (W) vs Sporting San Jose (W)

Team pages: Alajuelense (W) · Sporting San Jose (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.04Total

Alajuelense (W)2.59

Sporting San Jose (W)1.45

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Alajuelense (W) Draw Sporting San Jose (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Alajuelense (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Sporting San Jose (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWDLDW

Head-to-head

Alajuelense (W) 5–1 Sporting San Jose (W) (6 last)

Sporting San Jose (W)2-0Alajuelense (W)
Sporting San Jose (W)2-3Alajuelense (W)
Alajuelense (W)4-2Sporting San Jose (W)
Alajuelense (W)3-1Sporting San Jose (W)
Alajuelense (W)3-0Sporting San Jose (W)
Sporting San Jose (W)0-1Alajuelense (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alajuelense (W) 1628 · Sporting San Jose (W) 1504

	Alajuelense (W)	Draw	Sporting San Jose (W)
Our model	61%	19%	19%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alajuelense (W) (rating 1628 vs 1504).
H2H favours Alajuelense (W): 5-0-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alajuelense (W)	Sporting San Jose (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.4	3.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0	1.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.7 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 1.65 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:41 +16’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alajuelense (W) 5–0–1 Sporting San Jose (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women	Sporting San Jose (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Alajuelense (W)
26/04/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women	Sporting San Jose (W)	2-3 HT 0-2	Alajuelense (W)
12/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women	Alajuelense (W)	4-2 HT 2-2	Sporting San Jose (W)
16/11/25 Costa Rica Primera Division Women	Alajuelense (W)	3-1 HT 1-1	Sporting San Jose (W)
05/10/25 Costa Rica Primera Division Women	Alajuelense (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Sporting San Jose (W)
16/08/25 Costa Rica Primera Division Women	Sporting San Jose (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Alajuelense (W)

Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alajuelense (W)	8	7	0	1	31	4	21
2	Deportivo Saprissa (W)	8	6	1	1	29	12	19
3	Sporting San Jose (W)	8	4	3	1	35	13	15
4	Dimas Escazu (W)	8	3	2	3	18	14	11
5	Moravia (W)	7	2	1	4	13	12	7
6	Carrillo FF (W)	8	2	1	5	8	27	7
7	AD Chorotega (W)	8	2	1	5	9	34	7
8	Municipal Pococi (W)	7	0	1	6	2	29	1
9	Cartagines (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alajuelense (W)	Sporting San Jose (W)
Municipal Pococi (W)	6-1 W	7-1 W
Moravia (W)	2-1 W	2-2 D
Carrillo FF (W)	9-0 W	1-1 D
AD Chorotega (W)	7-0 W	10-0 W
Dimas Escazu (W)	1-0 W	3-3 D
Deportivo Saprissa (W)	1-0 W	3-5 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alajuelense (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alajuelense (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	1-0	6-1	–	–	W
18/09	Moravia (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	1-0	2-1	7	0	W
12/09	Carrillo FF (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	6-0	9-0	6	1	W
05/09	AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	3-0	7-0	10	1	W
29/08	Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/08	Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
15/08	Sporting San Jose (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
07/08	Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	3-0	5-0	7	3	W
28/06	Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
21/06	Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-0	0-0	4	1	D

Sporting San Jose (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	6-0	10-0	12	2	W
20/09	Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	1-2	3-3	12	5	D
12/09	Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	2-3	3-5	2	2	L
06/09	Carrillo FF (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	3-0	7-1	7	1	W
22/08	Moravia (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-0	2-2	13	2	D
15/08	Alajuelense (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
08/08	AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	5-1	7-1	–	–	W
12/05	Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
08/05	Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women	0-1	1-3	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alajuelense (W) vs Sporting San Jose (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alajuelense (W) win (60%). Probabilities: Alajuelense (W) 60%, draw 21%, Sporting San Jose (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in Alajuelense (W) vs Sporting San Jose (W)?

The model expects 4.04 goals (Alajuelense (W) 2.59 · Sporting San Jose (W) 1.45), with a 61% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alajuelense (W) vs Sporting San Jose (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.