Football · Spain Primera Federacion Women · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: Osasuna (W) vs Barcelona II (W)

Team pages: Osasuna (W) · Barcelona II (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Osasuna (W)1.51

Barcelona II (W)1.42

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Osasuna (W) Draw Barcelona II (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Osasuna (W) 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLLDD

Barcelona II (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWDDL

Head-to-head

Osasuna (W) 1–5 Barcelona II (W) (6 last)

Osasuna (W)1-2Barcelona II (W)
Barcelona II (W)1-0Osasuna (W)
Osasuna (W)2-3Barcelona II (W)
Barcelona II (W)2-1Osasuna (W)
Osasuna (W)0-2Barcelona II (W)
Barcelona II (W)0-1Osasuna (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Osasuna (W) 1476 · Barcelona II (W) 1549

	Osasuna (W)	Draw	Barcelona II (W)
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	39%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona II (W) (rating 1476 vs 1549).
H2H favours Barcelona II (W): 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Osasuna (W)	Barcelona II (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.62 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +2’	2.50	3.50	2.35
01:05 +9’	2.30▼	3.60▲	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +62’	2.21	3.44	2.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Osasuna (W) 1–0–5 Barcelona II (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Spain Primera Federacion Women	Osasuna (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Barcelona II (W)
07/09/25 Spain Primera Federacion Women	Barcelona II (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Osasuna (W)
02/02/25 Spain Primera Federacion Women	Osasuna (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	Barcelona II (W)
20/11/24 Spain Primera Federacion Women	Barcelona II (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Osasuna (W)
14/01/24 Spain Primera Federacion Women	Osasuna (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Barcelona II (W)
07/10/23 Spain Primera Federacion Women	Barcelona II (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Osasuna (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Federacion Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alhama CF (W)	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	Atletico Madrid (W) B	2	2	0	0	7	4	6
3	Villarreal (W)	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Athletic Bilbao B (W)	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Fundacion Albacete (W)	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	Levante UD (W)	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
6	Real Sociedad II (W)	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
8	Osasuna (W)	2	0	2	0	5	5	2
9	Sport Extremadura (W)	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Real Madrid (W) B	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
11	UD Tacuense (W)	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	Tenerife B (W)	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	Barcelona II (W)	2	0	1	1	4	6	1
14	CFF Caceres Women	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Osasuna (W)	Barcelona II (W)
Real Madrid (W) B	3-3 D	3-0 W
Real Oviedo (W)	0-1 L	4-2 W
Valencia (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Fundacion Albacete (W)	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona II (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Osasuna (W)

DLLLLDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sport Extremadura (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
13/09	Real Madrid (W) B Spain Primera Federacion Women	2-1	3-3	6	5	D
17/05	Villarreal (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
09/05	Villarreal (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
02/05	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
25/04	SE AEM (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
04/04	Barcelona II (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
29/03	Real Oviedo (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
22/03	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
14/03	Fundacion Albacete (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	1-1	1-1	6	3	D

Barcelona II (W)

DWWWDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Atletico Madrid (W) B Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-5	3-5	8	3	L
13/09	UD Tacuense (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
02/05	Fundacion Albacete (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
25/04	Real Madrid (W) B Spain Primera Federacion Women	2-0	3-0	1	3	W
04/04	Osasuna (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	1-0	2-1	1	8	W
28/03	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/03	CFF Caceres Women Spain Primera Federacion Women	1-1	5-1	1	9	W
14/03	Atletico Madrid (W) B Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
22/02	Real Oviedo (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	0-0	4-2	9	5	W
14/02	Real Betis (W) Spain Primera Federacion Women	1-1	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Osasuna (W) vs Barcelona II (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Osasuna (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Osasuna (W) 39%, draw 26%, Barcelona II (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Osasuna (W) vs Barcelona II (W)?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Osasuna (W) 1.51 · Barcelona II (W) 1.42), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Osasuna (W) vs Barcelona II (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.