Football · UAE Division 1 · 18/09, 16:40

Prediction: Dubai City vs Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

Team pages: Dubai City · Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Dubai City1.11

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain2.04

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Dubai City Draw Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dubai City 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLLWD

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWWWD

Head-to-head

Dubai City 1–1–4 Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain (6 last)

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain1-2Dubai City
Dubai City2-2Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain
Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain4-2Dubai City
Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain1-0Dubai City
Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain3-0Dubai City
Dubai City0-1Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dubai City 1440 · Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain 1533

	Dubai City	Draw	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain
Our model	19%	23%	58%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain (rating 1440 vs 1533).
H2H favours Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dubai City	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.3	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.10

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:54 +6’	4.50	4.10	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dubai City 1–1–4 Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 UAE Division 1	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain	1-2 HT 0-1	Dubai City
27/10/25 UAE Division 1	Dubai City	2-2 HT 1-2	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain
10/05/24 UAE Division 1	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain	4-2 HT 3-0	Dubai City
30/12/23 UAE Division 1	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain	1-0 HT 0-0	Dubai City
08/04/23 UAE Division 1	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain	3-0 HT 1-0	Dubai City
25/11/22 UAE Division 1	Dubai City	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

Standings · UAE Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
2	Al Dhaid	4	3	1	0	11	4	10
3	Al Bataeh	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
4	Al Hamriyah	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
5	Palm City FC	4	2	0	2	8	11	6
6	Al Urooba	4	1	3	0	5	3	6
7	Dibba Al Fujairah	3	2	0	1	7	6	6
8	Forte Virtus FC	3	2	0	1	3	2	6
9	Al Fujairah	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
10	Dubai City	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
11	Dubba Al Husun	3	1	0	2	6	4	3
12	Gulf United FC	3	1	0	2	6	7	3
13	Emirates Club RAK	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
14	Al Jazira Al Hamra	4	0	2	2	2	10	2
15	Al Ittifaq Dubai	4	0	1	3	1	5	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dubai City	Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain
Dubba Al Husun	0-2 L	0-1 L
Hatta Dubai	0-3 L	2-1 W
Al Fujairah	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dubai City

LLLDLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Al Jazira Al Hamra UAE Division 1	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
05/09	Al Ittifaq Dubai UAE Division 1	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
28/08	Al Dhaid UAE Division 1	0-2	1-5	3	4	L
21/08	Dibba Al Fujairah UAE Division 1	0-3	1-3	1	5	L
29/05	Dubba Al Husun UAE Division 1	0-0	0-2	0	3	L
23/05	Hatta Dubai UAE Division 1	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
15/05	Al Fujairah UAE Division 1	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
10/05	Al Jazira Al Hamra UAE Division 1	2-1	3-4	1	8	L
03/05	Majd FC UAE Division 1	0-1	0-3	5	7	L
18/04	Al Dhaid UAE Division 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

WLWLWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Al Urooba UAE Division 1	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
04/09	Al Bataeh UAE Division 1	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
29/08	Al Fujairah UAE Division 1	1-1	4-1	0	5	W
22/08	365 FC Dubai UAE Division 1	–	5-2	7	7	W
23/05	Masfut UAE Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
15/05	Gulf United FC UAE Division 1	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/05	Dubai United UAE Division 1	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
03/05	Emirates Club RAK UAE Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
24/04	Dubba Al Husun UAE Division 1	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
19/04	Hatta Dubai UAE Division 1	1-0	2-1	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dubai City vs Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain win (58%). Probabilities: Dubai City 20%, draw 22%, Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain 58%.

How many goals are expected in Dubai City vs Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Dubai City 1.11 · Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain 2.04), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dubai City vs Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.