Football · North Macedonia First League · 25/07, 17:00
Prediction: Vardar Skopje vs Bregalnica Stip
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Vardar Skopje2.3
Bregalnica Stip0.62
1X2
Vardar Skopje
Draw
Bregalnica Stip
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Vardar Skopje
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Bregalnica Stip
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vardar Skopje
4–2–0
Bregalnica Stip
(6 last)
- Bregalnica Stip0-3Vardar Skopje
- Vardar Skopje2-0Bregalnica Stip
- Bregalnica Stip0-0Vardar Skopje
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vardar Skopje 1584 · Bregalnica Stip 1615
| Vardar Skopje | Draw | Bregalnica Stip | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Vardar Skopje: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 15.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vardar Skopje | Bregalnica Stip | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.6 | 2.8 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.3 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 100/0/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.1 | 5 / 10.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vardar Skopje 4–2–0 Bregalnica Stip
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/24 North Macedonia First League | Bregalnica Stip | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Vardar Skopje |
| 25/02/24 North Macedonia First League | Vardar Skopje | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Bregalnica Stip |
| 01/10/23 North Macedonia First League | Bregalnica Stip | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Vardar Skopje |
| 03/05/17 North Macedonia First League | Bregalnica Stip | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Vardar Skopje |
| 12/03/17 North Macedonia First League | Vardar Skopje | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Bregalnica Stip |
| 05/11/16 North Macedonia First League | Bregalnica Stip | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Vardar Skopje |
Standings · North Macedonia First League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bregalnica Stip | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Struga Trim & Lum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KF Arsimi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Sileks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Skopje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vardar Skopje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tikves Kavadarci | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KF Bashkimi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | KF Shkendija Haracine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Shkendija Tetovo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vardar Skopje
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Riga FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 14/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 07/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 15/05 | FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Sileks North Macedonia First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League |
4-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | KF Shkupi Skopje North Macedonia First League |
3-0 | 7-0 | 15 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Rabotnicki Skopje North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
Bregalnica Stip
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Pobeda Valandovo North Macedonia Second League |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Osogovo Kocani North Macedonia Second League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Belasica Strumica North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | FK Sloga 1934 Vinica North Macedonia Second League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Detonit Plackovica North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | FK Golemo Konjari North Macedonia Second League |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | FK Skopje North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | Ohrid North Macedonia Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 21/03 | FK Prespa North Macedonia Second League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vardar Skopje vs Bregalnica Stip?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vardar Skopje win (75%). Probabilities: Vardar Skopje 75%, draw 16%, Bregalnica Stip 8%.
How many goals are expected in Vardar Skopje vs Bregalnica Stip?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Vardar Skopje 2.3 · Bregalnica Stip 0.62), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Vardar Skopje vs Bregalnica Stip?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.