Football · North Macedonia First League · 24/07, 17:00

Prediction: Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Arsimi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Tikves Kavadarci1.98

KF Arsimi1.47

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Tikves Kavadarci Draw KF Arsimi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tikves Kavadarci 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLDWDW

KF Arsimi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDDWWL

Head-to-head

Tikves Kavadarci 2–1–1 KF Arsimi (4 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tikves Kavadarci 1518 · KF Arsimi 1515

	Tikves Kavadarci	Draw	KF Arsimi
Our model	49%	24%	28%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tikves Kavadarci: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tikves Kavadarci	KF Arsimi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +3’	1.91	3.40	3.40
07:01 +2’	1.90▼	3.40	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tikves Kavadarci 2–1–1 KF Arsimi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 North Macedonia First League	Tikves Kavadarci	1-1 HT 1-1	KF Arsimi
04/03/26 North Macedonia First League	KF Arsimi	0-5 HT 0-3	Tikves Kavadarci
24/10/25 North Macedonia First League	Tikves Kavadarci	3-4 HT 2-0	KF Arsimi
20/09/23 North Macedonia Cup	KF Arsimi	1-2 HT 0-2	Tikves Kavadarci

Standings · North Macedonia First League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bregalnica Stip	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Struga Trim & Lum	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KF Arsimi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Sileks	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Skopje	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vardar Skopje	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tikves Kavadarci	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KF Bashkimi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KF Shkendija Haracine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shkendija Tetovo	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tikves Kavadarci	KF Arsimi
Rabotnicki Skopje	3-1 W	0-2 L
Pelister Bitola	2-2 D	1-0 W
Makedonija Gj. P	4-1 W	1-0 W
FC Struga Trim & Lum	2-1 W	0-6 L
FK Sileks	0-3 L	1-0 W
KF Bashkimi	2-2 D	1-1 D
AP Brera Strumica	6-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tikves Kavadarci (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tikves Kavadarci

WDLWLLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/05	Rabotnicki Skopje North Macedonia First League	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
16/05	Pelister Bitola North Macedonia First League	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
10/05	Makedonija Gj. P North Macedonia First League	2-0	4-1	8	6	W
03/05	KF Arsimi North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
26/04	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-4	0-7	1	7	L
17/04	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	0-3	1-4	7	2	L
13/04	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
07/04	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
02/04	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
20/03	AP Brera Strumica North Macedonia First League	4-1	6-1	5	3	W

KF Arsimi

LWWLWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/07	FC Struga Trim & Lum Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-6	5	4	L
23/05	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/05	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/04	KF Shkupi Skopje North Macedonia First League	2-0	5-1	7	0	W
19/04	Rabotnicki Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
14/04	Pelister Bitola North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
09/04	Makedonija Gj. P North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
03/04	AP Brera Strumica North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Arsimi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tikves Kavadarci win (48%). Probabilities: Tikves Kavadarci 48%, draw 25%, KF Arsimi 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Arsimi?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Tikves Kavadarci 1.98 · KF Arsimi 1.47), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tikves Kavadarci vs KF Arsimi?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.