Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca C · 23/07, 19:45

Prediction: Barra Mansa vs Buzios

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Barra Mansa1.65
Buzios1.02
1X2
51% 27% 22%
Barra Mansa Draw Buzios
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Barra Mansa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
LWWLWWDDDL
Buzios 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
LLDDWLWWDW
Head-to-head
Barra Mansa 0–3 Buzios (3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barra Mansa 1507 · Buzios 1527
Barra MansaDrawBuzios
Our model51%27%22%
Market51%26%22%
Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Buzios: 3-0-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Barra MansaBuzios
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 0.92.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.40.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/40/30%50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.4 / 41.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.4 / 0.55.3 / 0.5

Head-to-head (H2H) · Barra Mansa 003 Buzios

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DateHomeScoreAway
19/07/26
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
Buzios3-0
HT 1-0
Barra Mansa
22/09/22
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2
Buzios3-1
HT 2-0
Barra Mansa
10/10/21
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2
Buzios5-2
HT 3-1
Barra Mansa

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentBarra MansaBuzios
Mageense FC 3-0 W 1-1 D
Barcelona RJ 2-0 W 7-0 W
Vera Cruz RJ 1-0 W 5-2 W
Tigres do Brasil 1-0 W 0-0 D
Record vs common 4 W 0 D 0 L 2 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barra Mansa

LWWLWWDDDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/07 Buzios
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-1 0-3 23 L
12/07 Uni Souza
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-0 0-0 57 D
07/07 Uni Souza
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-0 0-0 42 D
03/07 Cardoso Moreira
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
1-0 2-2 64 D
07/06 Mageense FC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-0 3-0 W
31/05 Barcelona RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
2-0 2-0 36 W
24/05 Brescia RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-1 0-2 58 L
17/05 Vera Cruz RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
1-0 1-0 38 W
11/05 Tigres do Brasil
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-0 1-0 49 W
26/10 SE Paraty RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2
0-2 1-2 L

Buzios

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/07 Barra Mansa
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
1-0 3-0 33 W
12/07 Rio Barra
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-0 1-1 58 D
06/07 Rio Barra
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
1-0 1-0 08 W
28/06 Barcelona RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
3-0 7-0 113 W
08/06 Cardoso Moreira RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-1 0-2 54 L
31/05 Vera Cruz RJ
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
1-0 5-2 47 W
24/05 Mageense FC
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-1 1-1 35 D
03/05 Tigres do Brasil
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
0-0 0-0 78 D
10/08 Duque Caxiense
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
1-0 2-5 39 L
03/08 EC Resende
Brazil Campeonato Carioca C
1-1 2-3 23 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barra Mansa vs Buzios?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barra Mansa win (51%). Probabilities: Barra Mansa 51%, draw 27%, Buzios 22%.

How many goals are expected in Barra Mansa vs Buzios?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Barra Mansa 1.65 · Buzios 1.02), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barra Mansa vs Buzios?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.