Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 12/09, 16:30

Prediction: Antequera vs Alcorcon

Team pages: Antequera · Alcorcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Antequera1.26

Alcorcon1.23

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Antequera Draw Alcorcon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Antequera 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWWWL

Alcorcon 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWDDD

Head-to-head

Antequera 2–2 Alcorcon (4 last)

Alcorcon2-1Antequera
Antequera1-2Alcorcon
Antequera1-0Alcorcon
Alcorcon1-2Antequera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antequera 1500 · Alcorcon 1512

	Antequera	Draw	Alcorcon
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antequera	Alcorcon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +5’	2.50	3.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Antequera 2–0–2 Alcorcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Alcorcon	2-1 HT 1-0	Antequera
13/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	1-2 HT 0-1	Alcorcon
15/03/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Antequera	1-0 HT 0-0	Alcorcon
07/12/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Alcorcon	1-2 HT 1-0	Antequera

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Murcia	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Villarreal B	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Real Jaen	2	1	1	0	5	2	4
4	Atletico Madrid B	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	FC Cartagena	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Gimnastic	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
6	Real Madrid B	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
8	Huesca	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
9	UE Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	UD Ibiza	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Antequera	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Real Zaragoza	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
13	Alcorcon	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Aguilas	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Juventud Torremolinos CF	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	CE Europa	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
17	Teruel	2	0	1	1	0	4	1
18	Rayo Majadahonda	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Algeciras CF	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
20	Hercules	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antequera	Alcorcon
FC Cartagena	0-1 L	1-2 L
SD Tarazona	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Antequera (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Antequera

LLWWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/08	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-2	3-2	5	9	W
23/05	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	3-1	3	7	W
16/05	Sabadell Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
10/05	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
02/05	Betis Deportivo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
25/04	Eldense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
17/04	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
11/04	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
04/04	SD Tarazona Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-3	6	8	L

Alcorcon

WLLWLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
30/08	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-2	3	4	D
23/05	Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/05	Marbella FC Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-0	6-2	4	4	W
08/05	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
01/05	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	10	9	L
25/04	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/04	Villarreal B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-3	2	8	L
11/04	SD Tarazona Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	11	6	L
05/04	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	4-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antequera vs Alcorcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Antequera win (36%). Probabilities: Antequera 36%, draw 30%, Alcorcon 34%.

How many goals are expected in Antequera vs Alcorcon?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Antequera 1.26 · Alcorcon 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Antequera vs Alcorcon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.