Football · Hungary NB II · 26/07, 17:00

Prediction: FC Nagykanizsa vs Diosgyori VTK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

FC Nagykanizsa0.96

Diosgyori VTK1.93

1X2

18% 23% 59%

FC Nagykanizsa Draw Diosgyori VTK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Nagykanizsa 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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Diosgyori VTK 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Nagykanizsa 1593 · Diosgyori VTK 1452

	FC Nagykanizsa	Draw	Diosgyori VTK
Our model	17%	24%	59%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Nagykanizsa (rating 1593 vs 1452).
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Nagykanizsa	Diosgyori VTK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.1	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	33/22/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 9.2	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.00

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +8’	5.00	4.00	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Hungary NB II

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Csakvari TK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BVSC Zuglo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Diosgyori VTK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Ajka	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Nagykanizsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fehervar FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gyirmot SE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karcagi SE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kazincbarcikai BSC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kecskemeti TE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kozarmisleny SE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mezokovesd Zsory	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Soroksar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Szeged-Csanad Grosics	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Szentlorinc SE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tiszakecske FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Nagykanizsa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/06	Cigand SE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
31/05	Cigand SE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	9	7	D
24/05	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/05	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
03/05	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	5-0	8-0	–	–	W
26/04	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	8	7	W
19/04	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-0	5-0	6	2	W
11/04	Penzugyor SE Hungary NB III	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
05/04	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	8	7	D

Diosgyori VTK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Mezokovesd Zsory Europe Friendlies	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/06	MFK Zemplin Michalovce Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
16/05	Paksi Hungary NB I	0-3	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
25/04	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
18/04	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	0-2	0-5	1	0	L
10/04	Ferencvarosi TC Hungary NB I	1-0	1-3	3	4	L
05/04	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
21/03	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	0-0	1-3	5	3	L
13/03	Kazincbarcikai BSC Hungary NB I	0-2	0-4	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Nagykanizsa vs Diosgyori VTK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Diosgyori VTK win (59%). Probabilities: FC Nagykanizsa 18%, draw 23%, Diosgyori VTK 59%.

How many goals are expected in FC Nagykanizsa vs Diosgyori VTK?

The model expects 2.89 goals (FC Nagykanizsa 0.96 · Diosgyori VTK 1.93), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Nagykanizsa vs Diosgyori VTK?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.