Football · Canada Northern Super League Women · 24/07, 01:00
Prediction: Montreal Roses FC (W) vs AFC Toronto (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Montreal Roses FC (W)1.7
AFC Toronto (W)0.92
1X2
Montreal Roses FC (W)
Draw
AFC Toronto (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Montreal Roses FC (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
AFC Toronto (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montreal Roses FC (W)
1–1–1
AFC Toronto (W)
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montreal Roses FC (W) 1515 · AFC Toronto (W) 1468
| Montreal Roses FC (W) | Draw | AFC Toronto (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montreal Roses FC (W) (rating 1515 vs 1468).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montreal Roses FC (W) | AFC Toronto (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.3 | 3.2 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montreal Roses FC (W) 1–1–1 AFC Toronto (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Canada Northern Super League Women | AFC Toronto (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Montreal Roses FC (W) |
| 10/05/26 Canada Northern Super League Women | AFC Toronto (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montreal Roses FC (W) |
| 23/05/25 Canada Northern Super League Women | Montreal Roses FC (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | AFC Toronto (W) |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montreal Roses FC (W) | AFC Toronto (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Halifax Tides FC (W) | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Ottawa Rapid FC (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Vancouver Rise FC (W) | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Montreal Roses FC (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montreal Roses FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Halifax Tides FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | AFC Toronto (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | AFC Toronto (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 11/10 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/08 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/07 | Calgary Wild FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
AFC Toronto (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/07 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/06 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Ottawa Rapid FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | Montreal Roses FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Montreal Roses FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Halifax Tides FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/11 | Vancouver Rise FC (W) Canada Northern Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montreal Roses FC (W) vs AFC Toronto (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montreal Roses FC (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Montreal Roses FC (W) 55%, draw 25%, AFC Toronto (W) 20%.
How many goals are expected in Montreal Roses FC (W) vs AFC Toronto (W)?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Montreal Roses FC (W) 1.7 · AFC Toronto (W) 0.92), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Montreal Roses FC (W) vs AFC Toronto (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.